As the NZD/USD chart shows, the New Zealand dollar was trading around 0.5820 against the US dollar on Wednesday, but today it has climbed above 0.5895 – an impressive gain of approximately 1.4% in just two days.
The rise in NZD/USD is being driven both by the general weakening of the US dollar ahead of the Federal Reserve’s expected September rate cut, and by strengthening demand for the “kiwi”. As Reuters notes:
→ the New Zealand dollar is often used as a substitute for the yuan because of close trade relations with China;
→ meanwhile, the yuan is strengthening, with Chinese policymakers recommending support for the currency given its low valuation and the need to facilitate trade negotiations with the US.
Technical Analysis of the NZD/USD Chart
It’s worth paying attention to the unusual trading activity (marked by the arrow) and its context:
→ it was the lowest level in more than four months;
→ after a sharp decline, the price stabilised near the lower boundary of the channel;
→ trading was fairly active, and although the price was drifting lower, it failed to generate strong bearish momentum.
It is possible that so-called Smart Money was attracted by the undervalued asset, preventing further declines through buy orders and accumulating long positions. If so, from this perspective it is notable that:
→ the 0.5820 level acted as support on Wednesday – the price rebounded sharply;
→ yesterday NZD/USD moved into the upper half of the channel, breaking through the 0.5875 resistance.
This week’s price rise has formed a trajectory marked by purple lines. NZD/USD might be heading towards the upper boundary of the ascending channel, with the following resistance levels standing out along the way:
→ the former support at 0.5910;
→ the 50% Fibonacci retracement level from the A→B move.
An attempt to break through this resistance zone could result in a pullback towards the lower boundary of the purple channel.
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