AUD/USD edged higher to 0.6706 last week but reversed after rejection by 0.6713 fibonacci resistance. The firm break of 55 4H EMA suggests that a short term top could be formed already, and deeper pullback is underway. Initial bias is mildly on the downside this week for 55 D EMA (now at 0.6540). Firm break there will target 0.6413 support. On the upside, though above 0.6659 minor resistance will bring retest of 0.6706 high.
In the bigger picture, there is no clear sign that down trend from 0.8006 (2021 high) has completed. Rebound from 0.5913 is seen as a corrective move. Outlook will remain bearish as long as 38.2% retracement of 0.8006 to 0.5913 at 0.6713 holds. Nevertheless, considering bullish convergence condition in W MACD, sustained break of 0.6713 will be a strong sign of bullish trend reversal, and path the way to 0.6941 structural resistance for confirmation.
In the long term picture, fall from 0.8006 is seen as the second leg of the corrective pattern from 0.5506 long term bottom (2020 low). Hence, in case of deeper decline, strong support should emerge above 0.5506 to contain downside to bring reversal. On the upside, firm break of 0.6941 will argue that the third leg has already started back to 0.8006.
. Firm break there will target 0.6413 support. On the upside, though above 0.6659 minor resistance will bring retest of 0.6706 high.){kind=link}