USD/JPY’s steep decline last week suggests that rebound from 145.47 has completed at 149.95. But as a temporary low was formed at 146.58, initial bias remains neutral this week first. Overall, price actions from 150.90 are still seen as a corrective pattern. Above 148.21 will bring stronger rebound to 149.95 first. Firm break there should resume the whole rise from 139.87 to 151.22 fibonacci level. On the downside, though, below 146.58 will bring deeper fall to 145.47 support. Decisive break of 145.47 will indicate near term reversal.
In the bigger picture, price actions from 161.94 (2024 high) are seen as a corrective pattern to rise from 102.58 (2021 low). Decisive break of 61.8% retracement of 158.86 to 139.87 at 151.22 will argue that it has already completed with three waves at 139.87. Larger up trend might then be ready to resume through 161.94 high. In case the corrective pattern extends with another fall, strong support is expected from 38.2% retracement of 102.58 to 161.94 at 139.26 to bring rebound.
In the long term picture, there is no sign that up trend from 75.56 (2011 low) has completed. But then, firm break of 161.94 is needed to confirm resumption. Otherwise, more medium term range trading could still be seen.
