The World Trade Organization said today that global merchandise trade outpaced expectations in the first half of 2025, buoyed by strong demand for AI-related products, a surge in North American imports ahead of tariff increases, and resilient trade among emerging economies.
As a result, WTO economists raised 2025 global merchandise trade growth forecast to 2.4%, up from 0.9% projected in August. However, growth is expected to slow sharply to just 0.5% in 2026, reflecting the delayed impact of trade restrictions and slowing global demand. WTO added that services trade is also set to cool, with export growth projected to ease from 6.8% in 2024 to 4.6% in 2025 and 4.4% in 2026.
Director-General Ngozi Okonjo-Iweala credited the improved near-term outlook to countries’ “measured response to tariff changes” and the growth potential of AI, noting that global supply chains are adapting to geopolitical realignments rather than retreating from them.
Okonjo-Iweala highlighted that South-South trade—commerce among developing economies—rose 8% year-on-year in value terms during the first half of 2025, outpacing the 6% increase in overall world trade. Excluding China, South-South flows expanded even faster, up around 9%.
