As the chart shows, the XAU/USD quote has fallen below $3,945 today — its lowest level since 6 October. The downward momentum is being driven by traders’ caution ahead of two key events:
→ the U.S. Federal Reserve’s upcoming interest rate decision;
→ the meeting between U.S. and Chinese leaders, which could help ease tensions between the world’s two largest economies.
Technical Analysis of the XAU/USD Chart
The ascending channel (shown in blue) illustrates gold’s remarkable rally from the 20 August low (point A):
→ throughout September, the median line acted as strong support;
→ the peak at point B coincided with the upper boundary of the channel;
→ the QH line — dividing the upper half into quarters — alternated between resistance and support.
The black lines mark the consolidation zone observed between 21 and 27 October:
→ its lower boundary aligns with the median;
→ the shape resembles a Symmetrical Triangle pattern, which has since been broken to the downside.
The chart highlights the confidence of sellers — bears managed to push prices through the key support area defined by:
→ the psychological $4,000 level;
→ the 0.382 Fibonacci retracement (indicated by the orange arrow).
The next potential target for the ongoing decline lies near the QL line, which coincides with the round-number level of $3,900. However, this may only serve as a temporary barrier before bears attempt to drive the price lower — towards the bottom boundary of the primary channel.
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