Oil prices edged higher in Monday’s Asian session as traders welcomed OPEC+’s decision to keep production steady through the first quarter of 2026. The alliance agreed on Sunday to raise December output targets by 137,000 barrels per day — matching the pace set for October and November — but to pause further increases from January to March. The move signals a shift from aggressive supply expansion toward a more cautious approach amid rising uncertainty in global demand and sanctions-related disruptions.
Since April, OPEC+ has raised total output targets by roughly 2.9 million barrels per day, about 2.7% of global supply, but began slowing the pace in October as forecasts pointed to a potential oversupply heading into winter. Sanctions on Russian producers have added fresh uncertainty to the outlook, with Moscow now facing tighter U.S. and U.K. restrictions on Rosneft and Lukoil. These measures could cap Russia’s ability to increase exports.
By opting for a pause, the group is effectively protecting prices and projecting unity at a time when market confidence is fragile. The decision also reflects seasonal realities — January through March is typically the weakest quarter for global oil demand — giving the alliance time to assess the full impact of sanctions and global inventory trends before deciding on its next steps.
Technically, WTI crude’s decline from 78.87 appears to have completed at 56.44, holding comfortably above 55.20 (2025 low). The structure suggests that the drop was corrective, as the second leg of the pattern from 55.20.
The is room for extended rebound while 59.96 support holds. Break above 62.99 would target the 38.2% retracement of 78.87 to 56.44 to 65.00.
Failure to hold above 59.96, however, would imply renewed downside momentum and the risk of another test of the 55.20 zone before forming a lasting bottom.
