Gold and Silver’s late-week slide marked the continuation of a corrective pattern that has been unfolding since both metals hit record highs in mid-October. The sequence of the initial decline, the early-November rebound, and now the latest retreat all form part of a consolidation phase, reflecting that the markets are still searching for direction after months of decisive trending.
Both fundamental and technical backdrops suggest that this period of indecisiveness will continue in the near term. The broader uptrend remains firmly intact, but without a clear catalyst, price action is likely to stay choppy. New record highs remain part of the medium-term outlook, though the timetable leans toward early next year rather than the remainder of 2025.
On the fundamental side, the slowdown in Gold and Silver’s up trend began as U.S.–China trade tensions eased under their one-year arrangement blocking further tariff and non-tariff escalations. That agreement removed a significant layer of risk premium that had supported heavy hedging flows into precious metals. With geopolitical pressure reduced, markets have lacked urgency to extend the rally.
The latest leg lower was driven more by shifts in Fed expectations. A December cut is now regarded as a coin toss, softening the near-term appeal of non-yielding assets. Still, the larger policy direction remains downward, and an easing cycle next year should restore support for Gold and Silver once the current fog clears.
The challenge is that macro visibility will not improve immediately. Even though U.S. data releases are resuming after the shutdown ended last week, neither the Fed nor markets will have full clarity on underlying economic conditions until the release schedule fully normalizes in December. This leaves policymakers cautious and investors reluctant to build strong directional positions.
Technically, in Gold, the decline from 4,381.22 to 3,886.41 forms the first leg of a corrective pattern to uptrend from 3,267.90. The second leg has likely completed at 4,244.86 last week. Deeper move toward 55 D EMA (now at 3907.78) is favored. Support could emerge there, but firm break will target 100% projection of 4381.22 to 3886.41 from 4244.86 at 3750.05, where the correction should complete.
Silver shows a parallel pattern. The initial fall from 54.44 to 45.52 was followed by a second-leg rise to 54.36 last week, narrowly missing the prior high. Sustained trading below the 55 4H EMA (now at 50.678) would confirm the corrective structure and open a move toward the 55 D EMA (now at 46.99) or a bit lower. Strong support is expected from 45.52 cluster (50% retracement of 36.93 to 54.44 at 45.68) to contain downside to complete the consolidations pattern.
