USD/JPY’s rise from 139.87 contained last week and hit as high as 157.88 before retreating. Initial bias remains neutral this week first for consolidations. Downside should be contained by 154.47 resistance turned support to bring rebound. On the upside, break of 157.88 will target 161.8% projection of 146.58 to 153.26 from 149.37 at 160.17.
In the bigger picture, current development suggests that corrective pattern from 161.94 (2024 high) has completed with three waves at 139.87. Larger up trend from 102.58 (2021 low) could be ready to resume through 161.94 high. Decisive break of 158.85 structural resistance will solidify this bullish case and target 161.94 for confirmation. On the downside, break of 150.90 resistance turned support will dampen this bullish view and extend the corrective range pattern with another falling leg.
In the long term picture, up trend from 75.56 (2011 low) is still in progress and might be ready to resumption. Firm break of 161.94 will target 61.8% projection of 102.58 (2020 low) to 161.94 (2024 high) from 139.87 at 176.55 in the medium term.
