Currently trading at $4,118 per troy ounce, gold has started the week on an encouraging note, finding support in Monday’s session.
Rallying by staggering 1.70% in yesterday’s trading, which, albeit by recent accounts, seems to be perfectly normal, dovish comments made by Fed Williams last week have offered a new lease of life to current gold upside.
Join me as I attempt to answer the question: What’s next for gold?
Gold (XAU/USD): Key takeaways 25/11/2025
- Dovish comments from John Williams, President & CEO of the Federal Reserve Bank of New York, have recently challenged an increasingly hawkish narrative from the Fed, with rate cut probabilities spiking ahead of the December decision and bolstering gold pricing
- In the face of a stronger dollar, which currently trades at three-month highs, gold has found support at the 20-day moving average and will look to target $4,200 in the short term
- Gold continues to benefit from uncertainty created by the government shutdown, in no small part thanks to a perceived decline in central bank efficacy owing to the lack of data, which otherwise would be relied on to make monetary policy decisions
Gold (XAU/USD): At the mercy of the Federal Reserve
Granted, the above sounds like the title of a James Bond film, but the point remains:
The health of the current gold rally, and indeed much of the US equity markets, is at the mercy of the Federal Reserve and how votes are cast on December 10th
Gold (XAU/USD) vs Dollar Strength Index (DXY), D1, OANDA & TVC, TradingView, 25/11/2025
It was less than a week ago that I wrote an increasingly hawkish Fed had caused gold price to settle at $4,077, mainly on the back of October’s FOMC Minutes, which revealed “strongly differing views” amongst policymakers, as well as comments from Vice Chair of the Federal Reserve Philip Jefferson to “proceed slowly” with the current easing cycle.
The difference a week can make in the markets, however, continues to amaze me.
If you would, let’s discuss some of the macroeconomic themes within the precious metals markets, with special attention to current predictions for the December Fed meeting.
Gold (XAU/USD): Fundamental Analysis 25/11/2025
Fed Chair Williams shocks markets with dovish commentary
I won’t bury the lead – the latest U-turn in relation to Federal Reserve monetary policy has not offered newfound support, but represents the most significant of macroeconomic themes within precious metal markets.
Speaking last Friday at the Central Bank of Chile Centennial Conference in Santiago, Fed Williams offered the following commentary, to the surprise of much of the markets:
“Looking ahead, it is imperative to restore inflation to our 2 percent longer-run goal on a sustained basis. It is equally important to do so without creating undue risks to our maximum employment goal. I view monetary policy as being modestly restrictive, although somewhat less so than before our recent actions.
Therefore, I still see room for a further adjustment in the near term to the target range for the federal funds rate to move the stance of policy closer to the range of neutral, thereby maintaining the balance between the achievement of our two goals.
My policy views will, as always, be based on the evolution of the totality of the data, the economic outlook, and the balance of risks to the achievement of our maximum employment and price stability goals”
John Williams, President & CEO of the Federal Reserve Bank of New York, speaking at the Central Bank of Chile Centennial Conference, Santiago, Chile
In a nutshell, the above commentary presented a dovish perspective on the upcoming decision, in contrast to previously hawkish comments that, according to the CME FedWatch tool, had previously had markets predicting rates would be maintained at odds of over 70%.
CME FedWatch, 25/11/2025
Predictably, William’s words have reignited hope for a rate cut in December, which, according to some sources, now trades at an ~80% probability. Naturally, this bodes well for precious metals, which benefit from lower interest rates, as the opportunity cost of holding gold compared to dollars becomes lower.
This would go some way to explaining the recent support found in gold bullion pricing.
It’s worth mentioning that, as per my previous commentary, October’s FOMC Minutes highlighted a split room amongst policymakers, which, by definition, would mean that a few changes of opinion could sway the vote in December.
As a personal aside, I cannot remember a time when a Fed meeting has been so contested in terms of dovish and bearish push and pull, similarly to how we’ve seen for the upcoming meeting – never a dull moment.
I’ll briefly touch on a few remaining points, since the fundamental outlook remains essentially unchanged since the last time we spoke.
Gold undeterred by dollar upside
It was VP of NNFX who once said that gold drives the bus, and having received these words in my formative years as a trader, they have stuck with me throughout.
They are especially relevant to recent events, however, with dollar and gold prices currently rallying alongside each other.
While I won’t pretend that there has been an astronomical upside for either in the past few days or so, both trade substantially higher since mid-September.
Logically, of course, there is at least some level of negative correlation between gold and dollar pricing, with falling USD value across 2025 offering some upside to gold, being priced typically in USD.
With that said, gold drives the bus, meaning that gold can rally despite the best efforts of a stronger dollar.
Albeit perhaps not to the same extent as years past, the dollar still maintains some safe-haven appeal, with the uncertainty of delayed data releases, courtesy of the longest US government shutdown in history, adding to the risk premium.
The same can be said for gold, of course, which can explain, at least in part, why both have rallied in recent memory.
What I mean to say is that gold and the US dollar often share common ground in terms of economic tailwinds that often cause pricing to rally, especially in risk-off markets
As such, a downgrade in the dollar’s safe-haven appeal directly benefits gold, as seen this year, with both assets competing for a finite amount of safe-haven demand.
Let’s progress into some market technicals to wrap up, alongside some price levels to watching.
XAU/USD: Technical Analysis 25/11/2025
XAU/USD: Daily (D1) chart analysis:
Gold (XAU/USD), D1, OANDA, TradingView, 25/11/2025
In the spirit of honesty, much of my analysis remains unchanged from my previous coverage, as all price targets and support levels remain intact.
With that said, fair warning: market expectations for the upcoming Fed meeting could invalidate any level of technical analysis should another narrative shift occur.
Considering how volatile the run-in to the December meeting has been, traders would be well-advised to plan their exits carefully.
Now that my observations to generic trading advice is out of the way, let me start by saying that gold remains very well-supported on a technical basis. There has been little to question the ongoing rally, even though it has fallen substantially from all-time highs
What’s important is that price seems to have found support around $4,050, and should price continue upwards, this would suggest that we remain in uptrend territory, forming a higher low.
The next test will of course be the previous highs, as in, the higher high part, to fully confirm.
Should this happen, and considering the firm fundamental footing also, we could make another bid for all-time highs.
With that said, and if I were a betting man, all-time highs are only likely to be achieved in the next two weeks before volume begins to wane courtesy of holiday festivities.
For this to happen in two weeks alone would be a stretch, so I’d be looking at early 2025 at best for record pricing. Just my two pence.
Price targets and support/resistance levels:
- Price target/Resistance #1 – $4,240 – Previous support/resistance
- Price target/Resistance #2 – $4,381 – All-time highs
- Support #1 – $4,056 – 20-Period SMA
- Support #2 – $4,000 – Key psychological level
- Support #3 – $3,889 – Swing low
