USD/CAD’s fall from 1.439 extended lower last week and there is no clear sign of bottoming yet. Initial bias stays on the downside this week. Sustained trading below 61.8% retracement of 1.3538 to 1.4139 at 1.3768 will argue that whole decline form 1.4791 might be ready to resume through 1.3538 low. On the upside, however, break of 1.3870 resistance will indicate short term bottoming, and turn bias back to the upside for stronger rebound.
In the bigger picture, current development suggests that price actions from 1.4791 is developing into a deeper, larger scale correction. In the less bearish case, it’s just correcting the rise from 1.2005 (2021 low). But even so, break of 1.3538 will pave the way to 61.8% projection of 1.4791 to 1.3538 from 1.4139 at 1.3365. This will remain the favored case as long as 1.4139 resistance holds, in case of rebound.
In the long term picture, rising 55 M EMA (now at 1.3567) remains intact. Thus, up trend from 0.9056 (2007 low) should still be in progress. However, considering bearish divergence condition M MACD, sustained trading below 55 M EMA will argue that the up trend has completed with five waves up to 1.4791, and turn medium term outlook bearish for correction to 38.2% retracement of 0.9056 to 1.4791 at 1.2600.
