Risk aversion returned abruptly as the new week opened, propelling Gold and Silver to new all-time highs. With sentiment turning defensive, upside risks are building, raising the prospect of Gold extending toward 5,000 and Silver toward 100 should geopolitical tensions worsen.
At the center of the shock were escalating tensions over Greenland. Over the weekend, US President Donald Trump threatened to impose additional tariffs from February 1 on European countries linked to the dispute over control of the Arctic island. He further warned that duties would rise to 25% from June 1 until what he described as a “complete and total purchase” of Greenland is achieved.
The list of countries explicitly targeted was broad and politically sensitive, spanning Denmark, Norway, Sweden, Finland, Germany, France, the Netherlands, and the United Kingdom. By including both EU members and close U.S. allies, the threat immediately raised concerns about a wider transatlantic rupture rather than a contained bilateral dispute.
Trump’s shift from rhetorical pressure to concrete economic measures marked a clear escalation and signaled that the administration is prepared to use trade policy again as direct geopolitical leverage. With tariffs now explicitly tied to territorial acquisition, the Greenland threat is real rather than symbolic. The episode has intensified fears of deeper political imbalance within Europe and raised uncomfortable questions about the long-term cohesion of NATO, already strained by diverging strategic priorities.
European leaders reacted quickly, condemning the move as unacceptable and signaling a unified response. After emergency talks on Sunday, EU officials began weighing counter-tariffs worth up to EUR 93 billion on U.S. imports.
Technically, Gold has already met target of 61.8% projection of 3,267.90 to 4,381.22 from 3,997.73 at 4,685.76. There is no sign of topping, and indeed from 4H MACD, Gold might even be trying to reaccelerate.
Sustained trading above 4,685.76 will pave the way to 5,000 psychological level or even 100% projection at 5,111.05. Nevertheless, break of 4536.79 support will indicate short term topping, and bring consolidations first.
Silver is also just inch below 261.8% projection of 36.93 to 54.44 from 48.50 at 94.34 as the up trend resumes today. Near term outlook will remain bullish as long as 86.19 support holds. Firm break of 94.34 will pave the way to 300% projection at 101.13.
