The New Zealand dollar weakened today after the Reserve Bank of New Zealand (RBNZ) announced its decision to keep interest rates unchanged.
While the decision itself was widely expected, the accompanying forecasts drew attention due to their dovish tone. According to the official statement:
- → monetary policy is likely to remain accommodative for some time, although the possibility of a rate hike in the fourth quarter was not ruled out;
- → inflation is returning to the target range.
The currency market reacted by pushing the NZD lower against major counterparts. NZD/USD, for example, fell to its lowest level in nearly two weeks.
Technical Analysis of NZD/USD
The New Zealand dollar had been showing bullish momentum since late autumn 2025, resulting in the formation of an ascending channel. Notably, the channel’s median line shifted from acting as resistance to serving as support (highlighted by the thicker lines).
It is worth noting that the reversal from the 21 January peak — where price touched the upper boundary — occurred in a sharp manner. Near the 2025 high, bears appear to have regained confidence and seized the initiative.
- → From a bullish perspective, the aforementioned median line may provide support.
- → From a bearish standpoint, a descending trend line drawn through the lower high of 12 February may act as resistance.
Against this backdrop, it is reasonable to assume that the market could enter a consolidation phase over the coming weeks.
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