GBP/USD’s recovery was capped at 1.3574 last week but subsequent fall was contained contained above 1.3432 temporary low. Initial bias stays neutral this week first. Risk is mildly on the downside as long as 1.3574 resistance holds. Below 1.3432 will extend the fall from 1.3867 to 1.3342 structural support. Firm break there will argue that it’s already correcting the whole rise from 1.2099. Nevertheless, break of 1.3574 will turn bias back to the upside for 1.3711 resistance instead.
In the bigger picture, as long as 1.3008 support holds, rise from 1.3051 (2022 low) should still be in progress for 1.4284 key resistance (2021 high). Decisive break there will add to the case of long term bullish trend reversal. However, firm break of 1.3008 will raise the chance of medium term bearish reversal and target 1.2099 support next.
In the long term picture, as long as 1.4248/4480 resistance zone holds (38.2% retracement of 2.1161 to 1.0351 at 1.4480), the long term outlook will remain bearish. That is, price actions from 1.3051 are seen as a corrective pattern to down trend from 2.1161 (2007 high) only. Nevertheless, decisive break of 1.4248/4480 will be a strong sign of long term bullish reversal.
