The US dollar continues to trend upwards following the Federal Reserve meeting, drawing support from the regulator’s moderately hawkish stance and comments by Jerome Powell. Markets interpret the Fed’s rhetoric as a signal that restrictive policy is likely to remain in place for longer, supporting higher yields and sustaining demand for dollar liquidity.
Another factor is the anticipation of upcoming US macroeconomic releases, which could act as a trigger to confirm the current trend. Market participants remain cautious, assessing the outlook for inflation and overall economic conditions. This is keeping the dollar close to recent highs and creating conditions for further directional movement.
USD/JPY
The USD/JPY pair has tested its high for the current year, underlining the continued strength of the dollar in the present market phase. The move is supported by monetary policy divergence, with the Federal Reserve maintaining a tighter stance while the Bank of Japan continues to adhere to a more accommodative approach.
In the short term, two scenarios are possible. If positive expectations for the US economy persist and there are no signs of policy easing from the Fed, the pair may extend its advance towards the 2024 highs near 162.00. On the other hand, profit-taking and caution ahead of key data releases could trigger a local correction, pulling the pair back towards the 159.60–160.00 range.
Key events for USD/JPY:
- today at 15:30 (GMT+3): US GDP;
- today at 15:30 (GMT+3): US core personal consumption expenditures (PCE) price index;
- tomorrow at 02:30 (GMT+3): Tokyo core consumer price index (CPI), Japan.
USD/CHF
The USD/CHF pair is shifting into a corrective rebound after its previous decline, supported by the strengthening dollar. Technical analysis suggests potential growth towards 0.7940–0.7960, as a V-shaped reversal pattern has formed on the daily timeframe. However, if the pair settles below 0.7900, the downward movement may resume.
Key events for USD/CHF:
- today at 10:00 (GMT+3): Switzerland’s KOF leading economic indicator;
- today at 17:00 (GMT+3): Atlanta Fed GDPNow estimate;
- today at 23:30 (GMT+3): US Federal Reserve balance sheet.
Overall, the dollar remains in an upward phase, though its дальнейшая trajectory will depend on a combination of Fed signals and incoming data. The market is considering both the continuation of US dollar strength and the possibility of a short-term correction from current levels. The reaction to macroeconomic data will be decisive in confirming either scenario.
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