Last week’s development suggests that a short term top was in place at 159.88. Price actions from there is correcting the rally from 152.25. Initial bias is neutral this week and more sideway trading could be seen. In case of another dip, downside should be contained by 38.2% retracement of 152.25 to 159.88 at 156.96. On the upside, break of 159.88 will target a test on 161.94 high.
In the bigger picture, outlook is unchanged that corrective pattern from 161.94 (2024 high) should have completed with three waves at 139.87. Larger up trend from 102.58 (2021 low) could be ready to resume through 161.94. This will remain the favored case as long as 55 W EMA (now at 152.70) holds. Firm break of 161.94 will pave the way to 61.8% projection of 102.58 to 161.94 from 139.87 at 176.75.
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In the long term picture, up trend from 75.56 (2011 low) is still in progress and might be ready to resume. Firm break of 161.94 will target 61.8% projection of 102.58 (2020 low) to 161.94 (2024 high) from 139.87 at 176.55 in the medium term. Long term outlook will stay bullish as long as 139.87 support holds, even in case of deep pullback.
