Commodity-linked currencies are trading near key levels, showing restrained price action as market participants adopt a wait-and-see approach. The fundamental backdrop is shaped by expectations surrounding the release of Australia’s inflation data and the Bank of Canada’s interest rate decision, followed by a press conference. These events are viewed as key drivers for the respective currencies and could significantly shift the balance of power in the market.
Additional attention is focused on global factors, including US statistics (data on economic activity and oil inventories), as well as ongoing uncertainty surrounding negotiations between the US and Iran, which continues to influence overall risk sentiment.
AUD/USD
The AUD/USD pair is trading near its yearly high around 0.7220. This level is attracting heightened attention, as the pair has not traded above it for three years, increasing its significance as a supply zone. In the event of strong inflation data, a breakout with further upside is possible, whereas weaker figures could trigger a pullback and a return to the 0.7100–0.7180 range.
Key events for AUD/USD:
- today at 16:00 (GMT+3): S&P/CS Composite-20 Home Price Index (US), not seasonally adjusted
- today at 17:00 (GMT+3): US CB Consumer Confidence Index
- tomorrow at 04:30 (GMT+3): Australia Consumer Price Index
USD/CAD
The recovery in USD/CAD observed last week has lost momentum following a failed attempt to consolidate above 1.3700. Yesterday, the April low was updated, but the price found support at 1.3600 and rebounded. Technical analysis of USD/CAD points to the possibility of a decline towards 1.3540–1.3520 if the pair consolidates below 1.3600. The bearish scenario would be invalidated after a confident move and hold above 1.3700.
Key events for USD/CAD:
- tomorrow at 15:30 (GMT+3): US New Home Construction (housing starts)
- tomorrow at 16:45 (GMT+3): Bank of Canada interest rate decision
- tomorrow at 17:30 (GMT+3): Bank of Canada press conference
Overall, the market is in a waiting phase, where key levels in AUD/USD and USD/CAD serve as decision points. Upcoming macroeconomic events — including Australia’s CPI, the Bank of Canada’s decision, and US data — will determine the next direction: either continuation of current trends with breakouts, or a return to more subdued, range-bound dynamics.
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