- Rumours of talks with Iran have caused the USD index to retreat.
- The pound has recouped some of its losses thanks to Labour’s intention to stick to the rules.
The US dollar has retreated following Donald Trump’s statement that he was postponing the resumption of bombing Iran. According to the US president, he was asked to do so by Qatar, Saudi Arabia and the UAE because negotiations with Tehran are underway. Markets have once again come to believe in a de-escalation of the conflict in the Middle East, which has led to a fall in oil prices and the USD index.
Despite the headlines, the US and Iran remain far apart on key issues. It is difficult to envisage the Strait of Hormuz reopening any time soon, and the longer the standoff persists, the stronger the tailwinds for Brent and the dollar. Even more so, the stock market has finally begun to consider the negative consequences of accelerating inflation and the attractiveness of rising Treasury yields. The S&P 500 has retreated from record highs, and the associated deterioration in global risk appetite has bolstered the greenback as a safe-haven asset.
The swearing-in ceremony for Kevin Warsh as the new Fed Chair will take place at the White House this Friday. No doubt, Donald Trump is sincerely hoping for a rate cut, despite the futures market suggesting a 50% probability of a rate hike in 2026 after actively repricing expectations in recent weeks.
The British pound has launched a counterattack thanks to a statement by Manchester Mayor Andy Burnham. The frontrunner to succeed Keir Starmer as Prime Minister has stated that he adheres to fiscal rules. Previously, investors had feared that the new head of government would turn to fiscal stimulus, which would conflict with the Bank of England’s monetary tightening. Bond selloffs paused, and GBPUSD rose from 1.33 to 1.34.
The pound was supported by the IMF, raising its forecast for UK GDP growth from 0.8% to 1% in 2026. The economy may be able to withstand two rounds of BoE rate hikes, as signalled by the futures market.
Japan’s 2.1% GDP growth in the first quarter did not deter the USDJPY bulls. Investors are cautiously awaiting the government’s use of a supplementary budget to finance the servicing costs of its growing debt.
