Gold fell to 4,387 USD per troy ounce on Thursday, marking its third consecutive session of losses. The market remains cautious amid persistent uncertainty surrounding negotiations between the US and Iran, which continue to fuel concerns over inflation and the prospect of prolonged high interest rates.
Key disagreements between the two sides remain unresolved. Tehran continues to insist on maintaining control over the Strait of Hormuz and preserving its nuclear program.
US President Donald Trump previously stated that Washington would not accept a “bad deal” and was unwilling to ease sanctions on Iran, despite Tehran’s demands for financial concessions and an end to attacks.
Even if progress towards an agreement is achieved, markets still expect elevated energy prices to persist. This is likely to maintain inflationary pressure and force major central banks to keep monetary policy restrictive for longer, rather than moving towards rate cuts.
Since the beginning of the conflict, gold has already lost more than 15% of its value amid a stronger US dollar, rising bond yields, and expectations of higher interest rates across the global economy.
Technical Analysis
On the H4 XAU/USD chart, the market is trading within a consolidation range around 4,470 USD. A move lower towards 4,359 USD is likely. A corrective rebound to 4,470 USD (a retest from below) may follow, before a further decline towards 4,238 USD, with scope for an extension to 4,170 USD. The MACD indicator confirms the current bearish momentum, with the signal line below the centre line and pointing firmly downwards.
On the H1 chart, the market has broken below the 4,470 USD level and continues to move lower towards 4,390 USD. A corrective rebound to retest 4,470 USD from below remains possible, followed by another decline towards 4,250 USD. A subsequent rebound towards 4,390 USD may follow. The Stochastic oscillator supports this scenario, with the signal line below 20 and pointing firmly downwards.
Conclusion
Gold remains under significant pressure amid geopolitical uncertainty, elevated inflation expectations, and restrictive monetary policy. Technical indicators suggest bearish momentum remains dominant, although short-term corrective rebounds are possible.
