EUR/CHF attempted for recovery last week but failed after rejection by 55 D EMA (now at 0.9159). As downside is contained above 0.9094 temporary low, initial bias stays neutral this week first. Outlook is unchanged that rebound from 0.8979 should have completed at 0.9264. Break of 0.9094 will bring deeper fall back to retest 0.8979 low. For now, risk will stay on the downside as long as 0.9169 resistance holds, in case of recovery.
In the bigger picture, the rejection by 55 W EMA (now at 0.9252) suggests that the down trend from 0.9928 (2024 high) is still in progress. Firm break of 0.8979 will confirm down trend resumption. Outlook will stay bearish as long as 0.9394 resistance holds, in case of another rebound.
In the long term picture, outlook will stay bearish as long as 0.9407 support turned resistance (2022 low) holds. However, firm break of 0.9407 will argue that the down trend from 1.2004 (2018 high) has completed with five waves down to 0.8979. Stronger rebound should then be seen to 38.2% retracement of 1.2004 to 0.8979 at 1.0135 in the medium term.
. As downside is contained above 0.9094 temporary low, initial bias stays neutral this week first. Outlook is unchanged that rebound from 0.8979 should have completed at 0.9264. Break of 0.9094 will bring deeper fall back to retest 0.8979 low. For now, risk will stay on the downside as long as 0.9169 resistance holds, in case of recovery.){kind=link}