EUR/JPY’s rally from 182.01 resumed and continued last week despite interim retreat. Initial bias is back on the upside this week for retesting 187.93 high. Strong resistance would be seen from there to bring reversal, to extend the corrective pattern from 187.93 with another falling leg. For now, risk will stay on the upside as long as 184.42 support holds, in case of retreat.
In the bigger picture, the pullback from 187.93 was steep, there is no sign of reversal yet. Uptrend from 114.42 (2020 low) is still expected to resume at a later stage to 78.6% projection of 124.37 (2022 low) to 175.41 (2025 high) from 154.77 at 194.88. However, sustained break of 55 W EMA (now at 178.53) will argue that it’s already in a medium term down trend to 175.41 resistance turned support and below.
In the long term picture, up trend from 94.11 (2021 low) is in progress. Next target is 138.2% projection of 94.11 to 149.76 (2014 high) from 114.42 (2020 low) at 191.32. This will remain the favored case as long 55 W EMA (now at 178.53) holds.
