GBP/JPY edged higher to 214.66 last week but retreated since then. Initial bias remains neutral this week first. On the upside, above 214.66 will extend the rebound from 210.43 to retest 216.58 high. Strong resistance is expected there to bring reversal to extend the corrective pattern from 216.58 with another falling leg. On the downside, below 213.25 support will bring deeper fall back to 211.23.
In the bigger picture, while the fall from 216.58 was steep, there is no clear sign of trend reversal yet. The long term up trend could still extend to 61.8% projection of 148.93 (2022 low) to 208.09 (2024 high) from 184.35 at 220.90 on resumption. However, sustained break of 55 W EMA (now at 205.97) will argue that it’s already in medium term down trend for 184.35 support.
In the long term picture, up trend from 116.83 (2011 low) is in progress. Next target is 251.09 (2007 high). This will remain the favored case as long as 55 M EMA (now at 186.82) holds.
