USD/CHF’s rally from 0.7760 continued last week but retreated after hitting 0.8012. Initial bias stays neutral this week for consolidations. Further rise is expected as long as 0.7906 resistance turned support holds. Above 0.8012 will bring retest 0f 0.8041 high. Firm break there will resume the rise from 0.7603 and target 100% projection 0.7603 to 0.841 from 0.7600 at 0.8198 next.
In the bigger picture, while a medium term bottom was formed at 0.7603, it’s still early to call for bullish trend reversal. As long as 38.2% retracement of 0.9200 (2025 high) to 0.7603 at 0.8213 holds, the larger down trend could still continue through 0.7603 at a later stage. However, firm break of 0.7603 will argue that the trend has reversed and turn focus to 0.8332 support turned resistance (2023 low) for confirmation.
In the long term picture, price action from 0.7065 (2011 low) are seen as a corrective pattern to the multi-decade down trend from 1.8305 (2000 high). It’s uncertain if the fall from 1.0342 is the second leg of the pattern, or resumption of the downtrend. But in either case, outlook will stay bearish as long as 0.8756 support turned resistance holds (2021 low). Retest of 0.7065 should be seen next.
