EUR/USD’s extended rebound suggests that fall from 1.2081 might have completed as a three wave correction at 1.1323. Initial bias remains on the upside this week for 1.1621 cluster resistance (38.2% retracement of 1.2081 to 1.1323 at 1.1613). Decisive break there will solidify this bullish case and target 61.8% retracement at 1.1791. Nevertheless, break of 1.1454 minor support will turn bias back to the downside for 1.1323/1352 support zone instead.
In the bigger picture, focus is staying on 38.2% retracement of 1.0176 to 1.2081 at 1.1353. Decisive break there will revive the case of medium term bearish trend reversal after rejection by 1.2 key cluster resistance level. Further fall should be seen to 61.8% retracement at 1.0904. Nevertheless, strong rebound from 1.1353, followed by break of 1.1621 resistance, will retain medium term bullishness.
In the long term picture, 38.2% retracement of 1.6039 to 0.9534 at 1.2019, which is close to 1.2000 psychological level is the key for the outlook. Rejection by this level will keep the multi decade down trend from 1.6039 (2008 high) intact, and keep outlook neutral at best. However, decisive break of 1.2000/19, will suggest long term bullish trend reversal, and target 61.8% retracement at 1.3554.
. Decisive break there will solidify this bullish case and target 61.8% retracement at 1.1791. Nevertheless, break of 1.1454 minor support will turn bias back to the downside for 1.1323/1352 support zone instead.){kind=link}