Last week, gold posted a modest July gain, which has already given buyers a significant boost this week. With prices up 6.5% since the start of the week, gold has confirmed a major technical breakout, bringing to an end the downtrend that began in February. The price rebounded from the key psychological level of $4,000 – where the correction also ended last October – and from the 61.8% retracement of the 2022–2026 rally, reinforcing the significance of the reversal signal.
The bulls also have the strength with which gold broke through the 50-day moving average earlier this week in their favour; this average had served as support for the uptrend since the start of 2025, before turning into local resistance in March. If this is not a false breakout, this line could once again act as support for the medium-term bullish trend.
That said, on weekly timeframes, the bulls still need to do some groundwork. During the latest rally, the price approached but failed to break through the 50-week moving average – an important signal line for the long-term trend. It currently stands near $4,400, whilst at $4,500, there is another potential area of resistance that reversed the trend in December and March.
All things considered, we expect an interesting battle in gold this coming week, with the struggle intensifying following the release of US CPI and PPI data. The path to 4,500 may prove relatively easy, but beyond that, we should brace ourselves for a very significant tug-of-war.
The FxPro Analyst Team
