EUR/JPY rebounded after initial fall to 179.34 last week. Initial bias stays neutral this week first and more consolidations would be seen. But risk will remain on the downside as long as 55 4H EMA (now at 183.17) holds. On the downside, below 181.15 will bring retest of 179.34 low first. Firm break there will resume larger fall from 187.93 to 38.2% retracement of 154.77 to 187.93 at 175.26.
In the bigger picture, focus is now on 55 W EMA (now at 180.17). Strong rebound from there will indicate that the up trend from 114.42 (2020 low) remains intact. That would set up another rally through 187.93 to 78.6% projection of 124.37 (2022 low) to 175.41 (2025 high) from 154.77 at 194.88. However, sustained break of 55 W EMA will argue that it’s already in a medium term down trend to 175.41 resistance turned support and below.
In the long term picture, up trend from 94.11 (2021 low) is in progress. Next target is 138.2% projection of 94.11 to 149.76 (2014 high) from 114.42 (2020 low) at 191.32. This will remain the favored case as long 55 W EMA holds.
 holds. On the downside, below 181.15 will bring retest of 179.34 low first. Firm break there will resume larger fall from 187.93 to 38.2% retracement of 154.77 to 187.93 at 175.26.){kind=link}