GBP/JPY rebounded after initial fall to 209.55 last week. Initial bias stays neutral this week for some consolidations. Risk will remain on the downside as long as 55 4H EMA (now at 213.94) holds. Break of 211.31 minor support will bring retest of 209.55 low. Firm break there will resume the fall from 219.56 to 38.2% retracement of 184.35 to 219.56 at 206.10.
In the bigger picture, focus is on 55 W EMA (now at 208.91). Strong rebound from there will keep the up trend from 123.94 (2020 low) intact. Another rally is expected through 219.56 at a later stage. However, sustained break of 55 W EMA will argue that it’s already in a medium term down trend to 184.35 support.
In the long term picture, up trend from 116.83 (2011 low) is in progress. Next target is 251.09 (2007 high). This will remain the favored case as long as 55 M EMA (now at 188.96) holds.
 holds. Break of 211.31 minor support will bring retest of 209.55 low. Firm break there will resume the fall from 219.56 to 38.2% retracement of 184.35 to 219.56 at 206.10.){kind=link}