EUR/AUD fell to 1.6078 last week but failed to sustain below 1.6108 low. Nevertheless subsequent recovery was capped at 1.6226. Initial bias is turned neutral this week for some consolidations. While stronger rebound cannot be ruled out, risk will stay on the downside as long as 1.6444 resistance holds. On the downside, decisive break of 1.6078/6108 will resume the whole down trend from 1.8554 high. Next target is 1.5359 projection level.
In the bigger picture, fall from 1.8554 (2025 high) is in progress. On resumption, next target is 61.8% projection of 1.8160 to 1.6125 from 1.6617 at 1.5359. Outlook will remain bearish as long as 1.6617 resistance holds, in case of rebound.
In the longer term picture, fall from 1.8554 is seen as the third leg of the pattern from 1.9799 (2020 high), which is part of the pattern from 2.1127 (2008 high). Sustained trading below 55 M EMA (now at 1.6567) will confirm this bearish case, and pave the way back towards 1.4281.
