GBP/JPY fell further to 207.06 last week but recovered since then. Initial bias stays neutral this week for consolidations first. Further fall is expected as long as 209.73 minor resistance holds. Below 207.06 will extend the decline from 219.56 to 206.10 fibonacci level. Nevertheless, firm break of 209.73 will suggest short term bottoming. Stronger rebound should then be seen to 55 4H EMA (now at 210.38) and above.
In the bigger picture, price action from 219.56 is seen as correcting the up trend from 184.35 (2025 low). Deeper fall could be seen to 38.2% retracement of 184.35 to 219.56 at 206.10 before the correction completes. For now, risk will stay on the downside as long as 217.45 resistance holds, in case of rebound.
In the long term picture, up trend from 116.83 (2011 low) is in progress. Next target is 251.09 (2007 high). This will remain the favored case as long as 55 M EMA (now at 190.50) holds.
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