SECO sharply raised Switzerland’s sport-adjusted GDP growth forecast for 2026 from 0.9% to 1.7%, following an exceptionally strong 1.5% q/q expansion in the second quarter. The projection for 2027 was left unchanged at 1.6%. SECO said the economy remained broadly on course for recovery, supported by stronger global demand, improved sentiment and robust first-half activity, although it expects some correction over the remainder of the year.
The composition makes the upgrade less impressive than the headline suggests. Almost half of the second-quarter expansion came from volatile chemicals and pharmaceuticals output, accompanied by a sharp increase in exports. Foreign trade’s projected contribution to 2026 growth was revised from -0.2 percentage points to +0.8 points, while expected goods-export growth swung from -0.7% to +1.5%. Recent Swiss franc depreciation has supported exchange-rate-sensitive exporters, but domestic demand is improving more gradually: its projected contribution rose from 0.9 to 1.1 points, while private-consumption growth was nudged from 1.2% to 1.3%.
The stronger growth outlook does not create an immediate hawkish signal for the SNB. SECO left its average inflation forecasts unchanged at 0.6% for both 2026 and 2027, while unemployment is expected to edge down from 3.1% to 3.0% next year. Its technical assumptions retain average SARON at 0.0% in 2026 and 0.2% in 2027, rather than constituting an explicit policy forecast. The larger risk for CHF comes from outside the baseline: prolonged energy-price pressure would weaken growth and lift inflation, while trade uncertainty or a financial-market correction could renew safe-haven demand for the franc and partially reverse the export support provided by its recent depreciation.
Data summary
Headline forecasts
| Indicator | Sep forecast | Jun forecast |
|---|---|---|
| 2026 GDP, sport-adjusted | 1.7% | 0.9% |
| 2027 GDP, sport-adjusted | 1.6% | 1.6% |
| 2026 GDP, unadjusted | 2.1% | 1.2% |
| 2027 GDP, unadjusted | 1.2% | 1.3% |
| 2026 CPI inflation | 0.6% | 0.6% |
| 2027 CPI inflation | 0.6% | 0.6% |
| 2026 unemployment rate | 3.1% | 3.1% |
| 2027 unemployment rate | 3.0% | 3.0% |
2026 forecast components
| Component | Sep forecast | Jun forecast |
|---|---|---|
| Private consumption | 1.3% | 1.2% |
| Government consumption | 2.0% | 1.2% |
| Construction investment | 2.4% | 1.4% |
| Fixed assets and software investment | 0.5% | 0.3% |
| Goods exports | 1.5% | -0.7% |
| Services exports | 2.7% | 1.8% |
| Full-time-equivalent employment | 1.7% | 0.5% |
| Final domestic demand contribution | 1.1pp | 0.9pp |
| Foreign trade contribution | 0.8pp | -0.2pp |
External and monetary assumptions
| Assumption | 2026 | 2027 |
|---|---|---|
| Global demand growth | 1.5% | 1.8% |
| Eurozone GDP growth | 0.9% | 1.4% |
| German GDP growth | 1.1% | 1.4% |
| Brent crude, USD/barrel | 91.0 | 80.1 |
| SARON | 0.0% | 0.2% |
| Swiss 10-year bond yield | 0.4% | 0.6% |
SECO’s forecast was finalized on September 8. SARON figures are technical assumptions, not an explicit SNB policy forecast.
Key takeaways
- SECO raised its sport-adjusted 2026 GDP forecast from 0.9% to 1.7%, primarily because of stronger first-half activity and foreign trade.
- The headline overstates underlying momentum. Almost half of Q2’s 1.5% q/q expansion came from volatile chemicals and pharmaceuticals output.
- Foreign trade delivered the largest revision. Its projected contribution swung from -0.2pp to +0.8pp, while expected goods-export growth moved from -0.7% to +1.5%.
- Recent Swiss franc depreciation is helping export-sensitive industries, but renewed geopolitical or financial stress could revive safe-haven demand for CHF.
- Inflation forecasts stayed at just 0.6% in both 2026 and 2027, limiting the immediate implications of the growth upgrade for SNB policy.
- SECO expects a second-half correction, while energy prices, US tariff policy and possible financial-market disruption remain the principal downside risks.
