GBP/JPY’s strong rebound last week confirms short term bottoming at 207.06. However, it stalled at 211.25 and retreated. Initial bias is turned neutral this week first. Still, risk will stay on the upside as long as 207.06 holds. Above 211.25 will target 38.2% retracement of 219.56 to 207.06 at 211.83. Break there will target 61.8% retracement at 214.78.
In the bigger picture, price action from 219.56 is seen as correcting the up trend from 184.35 (2025 low). Deeper fall could be seen to 38.2% retracement of 184.35 to 219.56 at 206.10 before the correction completes. For now, risk will stay on the downside as long as 217.45 resistance holds, in case of rebound.
In the long term picture, up trend from 116.83 (2011 low) is in progress. Next target is 251.09 (2007 high). This will remain the favored case as long as 55 M EMA (now at 190.50) holds.
