Swiss CPI was unchanged at 0.0% m/m in September, matching expectations, while annual inflation accelerated from 0.8% to 1.0% y/y, also in line with consensus. The increase in the headline rate did not reflect a broad strengthening in underlying inflation, however. Core CPI remained flat m/m and rose just 0.5% y/y, while domestic-product prices fell 0.2% m/m and increased only 0.7% y/y.
The main upward pressure came from energy and imported goods. Imported-product prices rose 0.5% m/m and 2.1% y/y, while energy and fuel prices increased 2.3% m/m and 11.7% y/y. Petroleum products were particularly strong, rising 4.8% m/m and 31.2% y/y, with heating oil up 8.2%, diesel 4.4% and petrol 3.3% on the month. These increases were offset by declines in several travel-related categories, including international package holidays, hotels and car rentals.
The composition therefore remains considerably softer than the rise in headline inflation suggests. Goods prices increased 0.4% m/m, but services prices fell 0.3%, while private services declined 0.4%. With core inflation at just 0.5% y/y and domestic price pressure still restrained, September’s move to 1.0% is best read as an energy- and import-driven acceleration rather than a broad resurgence in Swiss inflation.
Data Summary
| Indicator | Previous | Current | Expected |
|---|---|---|---|
| CPI, m/m | +0.4% | 0.0% | 0.0% |
| CPI, y/y | +0.8% | +1.0% | +1.0% |
| Core CPI, m/m | — | 0.0% | — |
| Core CPI, y/y | — | +0.5% | — |
Headline inflation rose to 1.0% y/y, but the underlying picture remained soft, with core inflation at just 0.5% y/y.
Components
| Component | Current trend |
|---|---|
| Domestic products | -0.2% m/m, +0.7% y/y |
| Imported products | +0.5% m/m, +2.1% y/y |
| Goods | +0.4% m/m, +0.9% y/y |
| Services | -0.3% m/m, +1.0% y/y |
| Private services | -0.4% m/m, +1.2% y/y |
| Energy and fuels | +2.3% m/m, +11.7% y/y |
| Petroleum products | +4.8% m/m, +31.2% y/y |
The acceleration was concentrated in energy and imported prices, while domestic and services inflation remained comparatively restrained.
Key Takeaways
- Swiss CPI was unchanged at 0.0% m/m in September, matching expectations.
- Annual headline inflation accelerated from 0.8% to 1.0% y/y, also in line with consensus.
- Core inflation remained subdued at 0.5% y/y, with no monthly increase.
- Domestic prices fell 0.2% m/m and rose only 0.7% y/y, pointing to limited internally generated inflation pressure.
- Imported prices rose 0.5% m/m and 2.1% y/y, accounting for much of the headline acceleration.
- Energy remained the main source of pressure, with energy and fuels up 2.3% m/m and 11.7% y/y.
- Petroleum products surged 4.8% m/m and 31.2% y/y, led by heating oil, diesel and petrol.
- Services prices fell 0.3% m/m, while private services declined 0.4%.
- Overall, September’s rise in headline inflation was energy- and import-driven rather than broad-based.
