EUR/JPY’s decline from 187.93 high resumed by breaking through 177.82 last week. Initial bias remains on the downside this week for 175.26/41 support instead. Strong support could be seen there to bring rebound. On the upside, above 179.29 minor resistance will turn intraday bias neutral first. But risk will stay on the downside as long as 181.53 resistance holds, in case of recovery.
In the bigger picture, price action from 187.93 is seen as a corrective pattern to up trend from 154.77 (2025 low). Deeper fall cannot be ruled out, towards 175.41 cluster support (2025 high) and 38.2% retracement of 154.77 to 187.93 at 175.26 but strong support is expected there. However, decisive break will raise the chance of larger bearish reversal and target 61.8% retracement at 167.43.
In the long term picture, as long as 175.41 resistance turned support holds, up trend from 94.11 (2021 low) is still expected to resume through 187.93 at a later stage. However, considering bearish divergence condition in M MACD, firm break of 175.41 will argue that a major top is already in place.
