EUR/GBP fell to as low as 0.8446 last week but recovered since then. Initial bias remains neutral this week for consolidations. Further fall is expected as long as 0.8492 resistance holds. Firm break of 61.8% projection of 0.8728 to 0.8453 from 0.8611 at 0.8441 will target 100% projection at 0.8336. Nevertheless, break of 0.8492 will turn bias back to the upside for stronger rebound.
In the bigger picture, rise from 0.8221 (2024 low) should have completed at 0.8863, just ahead of 38.2% retracement of 0.9267 (2025 high) to 0.8221 at 0.8867. Deeper fall would be seen back to 0.8221. For now, outlook will be stay bearish as long as 0.8611 resistance hold.
In the long term picture, price action from 0.9499 (2020 high) is seen as part of the long term range pattern from 0.9799 (2008 high). Range trading should continue between 0.8201 and 0.9499, until there is clear signal of imminent breakout.
