GBP/JPY’s rise from 149.40 extended last week. Breach of 153.39 resistance suggests resumption of medium term rally. Initial bias remains on the upside this week for 61.8% projection of 139.29 to 152.82 from 146.96 at 155.32 first. Break will target 100% projection at 160.49. On the downside, break of 151.74 is needed to indicate short term topping. Otherwise, outlook will remain bullish in case of retreat.
In the bigger picture, it now looks like GBP/JPY has finally taken out 38.2% retracement of 195.86 to 122.36 at 150.43. Medium term rise from 122.36 should be targeting 61.8% retracement at 167.78. This will now be the favored case as long as 146.96 support remains intact.
In the longer term picture, current rebound argues that the down trend from 195.86 (2015 high) has already completed at 122.36. Focus is now on 55 month EMA (now at 154.74). Firm break there will suggest that rise from 122.36 is developing into a long term move that target 195.86 again. And, price actions from 116.83 (2011 low) is indeed a sideway pattern that could last more than a decade.
