Daily Pivots: (S1) 0.9607; (P) 0.9623; (R1) 0.9649; More…
Despite edging higher to 0.9648, USD/CHF failed to sustain above 0.9626 key fibonacci level. With 4 hour MACD turned below signal line, intraday bias is turned neutral first. Rejection from 0.9626, followed by by break of 0.9521 support, will turn bias back to the downside for 0.9432 support. Break there will indicate near term reversal and completion of rebound from 0.9186. Meanwhile, sustained break of 0.9626 will be another evidence of larger reversal. In this case, further rise would be seen to next fibonacci level at 0.9900.
In the bigger picture, fall from 1.0342 is seen as a medium term down trend. Main focus is on 38.2% retracement of 1.0342 (2016 high) to 0.9186 (2018 low) at 0.9626. Sustained break there will add to the case of trend reversal and target 61.8% retracement at 0.9900 and above. However, rejection from 0.9626 will maintain medium term bearishness for another low below 0.9186.
