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Eurozone Sentix Confidence Extends Recovery, but Inflation Concerns Stay Elevated
Eurozone investor confidence improved for a second consecutive month in June, with Sentix Investor Confidence rising from -16.4 to -13.4, slightly above expectations of -13.8. The Current Situation Index climbed from -21.5 to -20.0, while the Expectations Index improved notably from -11.3 to -6.5, suggesting investors are becoming more optimistic about the economic outlook after the sharp deterioration seen earlier this year.
According to Sentix, the recovery follows the severe hit to sentiment in March and April caused by the Iran conflict and the resulting surge in oil prices. Concerns about a significant economic slowdown have eased as economic prospects in the US and Asia have improved, providing fresh support for global growth. The Eurozone has also benefited from the more favorable international backdrop, though the recovery remains less dynamic than in other major regions.
However, inflation remains a key concern. Sentix noted that higher energy prices continue to fuel worries about persistent price pressures despite a modest improvement in its inflation barometer from -43 to -38. Germany remains a particular weak spot, with sluggish domestic performance weighing on the broader Eurozone recovery. The survey reinforces expectations that ECB will maintain a vigilant stance on inflation, with markets already anticipating a rate hike at this week's policy meeting.
| Indicator | Previous | June | Expected |
|---|---|---|---|
| Sentix Investor Confidence | -16.4 | -13.4 | -13.8 |
| Current Situation Index | -21.5 | -20.0 | |
| Expectations Index | -11.3 | -6.5 | |
| Inflation Barometer | -43 | -38 |
Japan Growth Downgraded to 1.8% as Capital Spending Weakens
Japan's economic expansion in Q1 was weaker than initially estimated, as a sharp downward revision to corporate investment offset improvements in consumption and trade. Revised government figures showed real GDP grew at an annualized 1.8% pace in January-March, down from the preliminary estimate of 2.1%, while quarter-on-quarter growth was revised from 0.51% to 0.45%.
The key drag came from business spending. Capital investment was revised from a 0.3% gain to a -0.7% contraction, raising questions about corporate confidence amid a broader environment of rising inflation and expectations for further Bank of Japan policy normalization. The downgrade also reduced nominal GDP growth to an annualized 2.5% from the previously reported 3.4%.
However, the overall picture was not uniformly weak. Consumer spending was revised higher to 0.35% growth from 0.27%, suggesting household demand remained supportive. Housing investment was also stronger than first reported, while exports rose 1.8%, slightly above the preliminary estimate. Together, the revisions point to an economy still expanding at a healthy pace, though one increasingly reliant on consumers and external demand rather than corporate investment.
| Indicator | Previous Estimate | Revised Estimate |
|---|---|---|
| Real GDP (Annualized) | 2.1% | 1.8% |
| Real GDP (Q/Q) | 0.51% | 0.45% |
| Capital Spending | +0.3% | -0.7% |
| Private Consumption | +0.27% | +0.35% |
| Public Investment | +1.4% | +1.5% |
| Housing Investment | +0.5% | +0.9% |
| Exports | +1.7% | +1.8% |
| Imports | +0.5% | +0.4% |
| Nominal GDP (Annualized) | +3.4% | +2.5% |
Canada Employment Surges 87.8K, Unemployment Falls to 6.6%
Canada's labor market delivered a much stronger-than-expected performance in May, with employment rising by 87.8k compared with expectations for a gain of just 10.2k. The increase marked the first significant monthly advance since November 2025 and followed a decline of -17.7k in April. While the result does not fully offset the weakness seen earlier this year, it represents a notable turnaround after cumulative job losses of -112k during the first four months of 2026.
The quality of hiring was particularly encouraging. Full-time employment surged by 154k, highlighting solid underlying labor demand rather than temporary or part-time hiring. As a result, the unemployment rate fell from 6.9% to 6.6%, beating expectations for an unchanged reading. The employment rate also improved by 0.2 percentage points to 60.7%, indicating broader labor-market participation and stronger workforce absorption.
Despite the sharp rebound in hiring, wage growth eased noticeably. Average hourly earnings increased 3.0% yoy in May, slowing from 4.5% yoy in April. That moderation should help alleviate concerns about wage-driven inflation pressures and may reduce any urgency for the Bank of Canada to consider tighter policy.
| Indicator | Previous | Latest | Expectation |
|---|---|---|---|
| Employment Change | -17.7k* | 87.8k | 10.2k |
| Unemployment Rate | 6.9% | 6.6% | 6.9% |
| Employment Rate | 60.5% | 60.7% | — |
| Avg. Hourly Wages Y/Y | 4.5% | 3.0% | — |
| Category | Change |
|---|---|
| Total Employment | +87.8k |
| Full-Time Employment | +154.0k |
| Part-Time Employment | -66.2k |


