Eurozone goods exports fall -6.3% yoy in Jun, goods imports down -8.6% yoy

    Eurozone goods exports fell -6.3% yoy to EUR 236.7B in June. Goods imports fall -8.6% yoy to EUR 214.3B. Trade balance showed a EUR 22.3B surplus. Intra-Eurozone trade fell -8.5% yoy to EUR 214.5B.

    In seasonally adjusted term, goods exports fell -0.2% mom to EUR 236.2B. Goods imports fell -2.4% mom to EUR 218.7B. Trade surplus widened from EUR 12.4B in the prior month to EUR 17.5B, larger than expectation of EUR 14.5B. Intra-Eurozone trade rose 0.4% mom to EUR 210.7B.

    Full Eurozone trade balance release here.

    Fed’s Kashkari signals preference for stronger policy action to tame inflation target

      Minneapolis Federal Reserve President Neel Kashkari expressed concern over the consequences of insufficient tightening in a WSJ interview, saying, “Under-tightening will not get us back to 2% in a reasonable time.” He favored a stance that leans toward an aggressive policy rather than a cautious one.

      In a subsequent conversation with Fox News, Kashkari drew attention to the economy’s endurance despite Fed’s recent rounds of rate increases. “The economy has proved to be really resilient even though we’ve raised interest rates a lot over the past couple of years. That’s good news,” he said. This resilience suggests that the economy might be better positioned to handle further rate hikes, should they be deemed necessary.

      However, Kashkari was clear that the Fed’s job is far from over, as inflation remains a critical challenge. “We need to let the data keep coming to us to see if we really have got the inflation genie back in the bottle so to speak,” he conveyed, emphasizing the need for ongoing vigilance. He added, “We haven’t completely solved the inflation problem. We still have more work ahead of us to get it done.”

      Fed Williams: Not my baseline to cut interest rates this year

        New York Fed President John Williams maintained a hawkish stance on Fed’s monetary policy, asserting the necessity of persisting with rate hikes to control surging inflation.

        “We haven’t said we are done raising rates,” Williams stated yesterday, emphasizing that future decisions would be data-driven, aligning with Fed’s goals. He stressed, “We’ve made incredible progress” on tackling inflation, but left the door open for further policy tightening, saying, “if additional policy firming is appropriate, we’ll do that.”

        Williams projected that a restrictive monetary policy stance would be necessary for an extended period to curb inflation from 4% to the targeted 2%. He denied any likelihood of rate cuts in the current year, quashing speculations of such a move. He said, “I do not see in my baseline forecast any reason to cut interest rates this year.”

        Addressing the inflation conundrum, Williams declared price pressures “too high” and acknowledged a discrepancy between demand and supply, with the former outpacing the latter. He noted signs of a “gradual cooling in the demand for labor,” as well as for certain goods and commodities, yet emphasized that these were outweighed by the overall demand-supply mismatch.

        Canada CPI jumped to 5.1% yoy in Jan, highest since 1991

          Canada CPI jumped from 4.8% yoy to 5.1% yoy in January, above expectation of 4.8% yoy. Also, inflation surpassed 5% for the first time since September 1991. On monthly basis, CPI rose 0.9% mom, above expectation of 0.6% mom, highest since January 2017.

          Excluding gasoline, CPI rose 4.3% yoy, highest since the introduction of the index in 1999. Prices for services was unchanged at 3.4% yoy. Prices for goods accelerated from 6.8% yoy to 7.2% yoy.

          CPI common rose from 2.1% yoy to 2.3% yoy, above expectation of 2.1% yoy. CPI median rose from 3.1% yoy to 3.3% yoy, above expectation of 3.1% yoy. CPI trimmed rose from 3.8% yoy to 4.0% yoy, above expectation of 3.7% yoy.

          Full release here.

          EU Oettinger insists Irish backstop cannot be subject to time limit

            Sterling recovered earlier today but quickly pared gains after EU pour more cold water on UK Prime Minister Boris Johnson’s proposal. EU Budget Commissioners Guenther Oettinger said the latest offer did “not represent a satisfactory solution”. He also insisted that Irish backstop cannot be subject to a time limit or be at risk of being vetoed by a third party.

            Northern Irish party Democratic Unionist Party (DUP) on the other hand, is dissatisfied with the rumored counter offer from EU. It’s said EU is ready to give the assembly a say over post-Brexit customs checks on the Irish border, but only via a double majority. DUP chief whip Jeffrey Donaldson also said “This creates a customs border between Northern Ireland and our biggest market in Great Britain. Economic madness. DUP has been clear in opposition to this. It’s the NI only Backstop reheated and represents no real compromise.”

            Irish Prime Minister Leo Varadkar also said yesterday that ” it will be very difficult to secure an agreement by next week, quite frankly”. “Essentially what the United Kingdom has done is repudiated the deal that we negotiated in good faith with Prime Minister May’s government over two years and has sort of put half of that now back on the table and are saying that’s a concession and of course it isn’t really. There are two big gaps.”

            Australia employment grew 37k, but full time jobs dropped -6.4k

              Australian employment market grew 37.0k, seasonally adjusted, in November, much better than expectation of 20.0k. However, the growth was mainly driven by part-time jobs, which rose 43.4k. Full-time employment has indeed dropped -6.4k. Unemployment rate also rose 0.1% to 5.1%, above expectation of 5.0%. Participation rate rose 0.2% to 65.7%.

              The set of data provided no support to Australian Dollar. Risk aversion is a factor weighing down the Aussie. Also, it’s sold off against Dollar on less dovish than expected Fed, and against Euro in Italy-EU budget deal. AUD/USD’s fall from 0.7393 is on track to retest 0.7020 low.

              EUR/AUD is also on track for retesting 1.6357 high.

              Eurozone industrial rose 0.2% mom in November

                Eurozone industrial production rose 0.2% mom in November, below expectation of 0.3% mom. Production of capital goods rose by 1.2% and energy by 0.8%, while production of intermediate goods fell by 0.5%, non-durable consumer goods by 0.7% and durable consumer goods by 0.8%.

                EU 28 industrial production dropped -0.1%. Among Member States for which data are available, the highest increases in industrial production were registered in Lithuania (+3.0%), Malta (+2.6%), Poland and Sweden (both +1.6%). The largest decreases were observed in Denmark (-4.7%), Ireland (-4.1%) and Greece (-3.7%).

                Full release here.

                RBA Lowe: To hold doesn’t imply tightening is over

                  RBA Governor Philip Lowe, in a speech today, clarified that the decision to keep interest rates unchanged yesteday does not mark the end of tightening measures.

                  “The decision to hold rates steady this month does not imply that interest rate increases are over. Indeed, the Board expects that some further tightening of monetary policy may well be needed to return inflation to target within a reasonable timeframe,” he said.

                  Acknowledging that monetary policy is now in restrictive territory, Lowe said it was time to hold interest rates steady and gather more information. He also mentioned that RBA will review its monetary policy stance at the next meeting, taking into account updated forecasts and scenarios.

                  Full speech of RBA Philip Lowe here.

                  Australia retail sales down -0.2% mom in Oct, strategic delay for Black Friday

                    Australia’s retail sales turnover in October displayed an unexpected downturn, falling by -0.2% mom, contrary to the anticipated rise of 0.1% mom. This decline follows a period of growth, with 0.9% mom increase in September and 0.2% mom rise in August.

                    Ben Dorber, head of retail statistics at ABS, noted “Retail turnover fell in October after a short-lived boost in spending in September.” This downturn was seen across all retail categories except food retailing.

                    Dorber attributed this pause in consumer spending to a strategic delay by consumers, who are likely waiting to capitalize on Black Friday sales events in November. He observed that this has become a recurring pattern in recent years, with Black Friday sales gaining increasing popularity among consumers.

                    Full Australia retail sales release here.

                    Selloffs in Yuan and HSI hint at trouble for China ahead

                      While Euro and Italy catches a lot of attention today, we’d like to point out a development in Asia. USD/CNH (offshore Yuan) surges again today and takes out 6.8959 resistance. This is an important sign of underlying weakness in the Yuan. And the pair could head back to 6.9856 high for a test.

                      Additionally, Hong Kong HSI also suggested steep selloff, by -2.38% today. These two are important signs that Chinese markets could return from holiday next week in deep trouble. While Euro is weak today, Australian Dollar is even worse, because of that.

                      IMF cut Asia growth forecasts to 4% in 2022, 4.3% in 2023

                        IMF lowered Asia’s growth forecast in to 4.0% in 2022, 4.3% in 2023, and 4.6% in 2024. Japan’s growth forecast was held unchanged at 1.7% in 2022, downgraded slightly to 1.6% in 2023, and raised to 1.3% in 2024. For China, growth forecasts was downgraded to 3.2% in 2022, 4.4% in 2023, and 4.5% in 2024.

                        “As the effects of the pandemic wane, the region faces new headwinds from global financial tightening and an expected slowdown of external demand,” the report said.

                        As for China, “with a growing number of property developers defaulting on their debt over the past year, the sector’s access to market financing has become increasingly challenging,” the report noted.”Risks to the banking system from the real estate sector are rising because of substantial exposure.”

                        Full report here.

                         

                        SNB Jordan emphasized negative rates and readiness to intervene as necessary

                          SNB Chairman Thomas Jordan reiterated the stance on negative interest rate, and readiness for intervention at the meeting with the seven member Federal Council. the Council said in a statement that “inflation is down, the global low interest environment has grown further entrenched and the situation on foreign exchange markets remains fragile.” “Against this backdrop, Chairman Jordan emphasized that monetary policy with negative interest rates and the readiness to intervene is just as necessary as before.”

                          Swiss Franc overtaking Dollar? Gold dives through 1300

                            Dollar’s rally in early US session was triggered by 10 year yields which surged to highest since 2011 at 3.068. At the time of writing, TNX remains firm at 3.059. But USD is struggling to find follow through buying. 1.1822 in EURUSD, 1.3459 in GBPUSD cannot be firmly taken out to confirm fall resumption yet. Instead, there’s some money flow into Swiss Franc.

                            On the other hand, Gold’s fall has much more conviction. With 1300 handle taken out, next support could be found at medium term trend line at around 1285. This will be a key level to defend the “corrective” up trend from 1112.81. Break there will further affirm the case of trend reversal. And, rising yield, falling gold. It will be a matter of time, if not now, that Dollar buying will show more commitment.

                            UK retail sales jumped 9.2% mom in Apr on re-opening

                              UK retail sales grew sharply by 9.2% mom in April, well above expectation of 4.0% mom. Ex-fuel sales jumped 9.0% om, also above expectation of 4.0% mom. The strong growth reflected effect of easing of coronavirus restrictions, including the re-opening of all non-essential retail from 12 April in England and Wales and from 26 April in Scotland.

                              Full release here.

                              Japan GDP grew 0.5% qoq in Q2, exceeding pre-pandemic level finally

                                Japan GDP grew 0.5% qoq in Q2, below expectation of 0.6% qoq. In annualized term, GDP grew 2.2%, below expectation of 2.5%. The size of the economy was lifted to JPY 542.1T, finally exceeding pre-pandemic level in Q4 2019.

                                Growth was driven by 1.1% gain in private consumption. Capital expenditure rose 1.4%. Public investment rose 0.9%. Exports and imports rose 0.9% and 0.7% respectively.

                                UK CPI down to 2.3% in Apr, core CPI falls to 3.9%, both above expectations

                                  UK CPI slowed sharply from 3.2% yoy to 2.3% yoy in April, but above expectation of 2.1% yoy. Core CPI (excluding energy, food, alcohol and tobacco) slowed from 4.2% yoy to 3.9% yoy, above expectation of 3.6% yoy.

                                  CPI goods annual rate turned negative from 0.8% yoy to -0.8% yoy. But CPI services annual rate eased just slightly from 6.0% yoy to 5.9% yoy.

                                  Full UK CPI release here.

                                  BoJ’s Ueda reaffirms support for economy while keeping rate hikes on the table

                                    BoJ Governor Kazuo Ueda reiterated the central bank’s is aiming for “gradual pickup” in prices, supported by a “solid increase in wages.” He emphasized that maintaining easy monetary conditions remains necessary to “support economic activity” and ensure that underlying inflation continues rising toward the 2% target.

                                    However, he also made it clear that BoJ’s stance remains unchanged, noting that it will “continue raising interest rates” and adjust monetary support if the economy and prices “move in line with our forecasts.”

                                    At the same parliamentary session, Prime Minister Shigeru reinforced the government’s priority of achieving sustainable inflation alongside wage growth. He highlighted that while stable price increases are important, “we must aim for wage growth higher than inflation while prices rise stably.” He also warned against the perception that falling prices are beneficial, arguing that such views prolonged Japan’s deflationary struggles in the past.

                                    BoE Carney: No-deal Brexit is not a financial crisis round two, but real economy shock

                                      At the Treasury Committee BoE Inflation Report hearing, BoE Governor Mark Carney emphasized that a no-deal Brexit is “not a financial crisis round two” where central banks take center stage. Instead, ” this is a real economy shock and therefore central banks have a role but we’re more of a sideshow.” He also added the real issues are going to be in the real economy. They’ll be about “how well the logistics system works, where business confidence is, what access, if any, is there in a true, no-deal transition Brexit.”

                                      Carney acknowledged that “implied volatility in sterling is very high right now, much higher than it is for other major currencies” for “political discussions” with “importance” for the short to medium term outlook. And, “it will continue to be volatile for the next month at least”.

                                      Chief economic Andy Haldane said “notwithstanding the fact that details of the (Brexit) deal remain to be agreed, we are seeing somewhat greater impact on the behavior of companies in particular in the last month or two.” And, “that could make for a somewhat weaker fourth quarter than we saw in the third quarter, and certainly a more volatile path for output I think over the next few months.”

                                      BoC raise rate to 0.50%, refrains from QT for now

                                        BoC raises overnight rate by 25bps to 0.50% as widely expected. The Bank Rate and the deposit rate now stand at 0.75% and 0.50% respectively. The policy rate is the “primary monetary policy instrument”. It added, “as the economy continues to expand and inflation pressures remain elevated, the Governing Council expects interest rates will need to rise further.”

                                        BoC also said it’s “continuing its reinvestment phase” of QE, and keep its overall holdings of government bonds “roughly constant”. The timing of rate hike and quantitative tightening will be “guided by the Bank’s ongoing assessment of the economy and its commitment to achieving the 2% inflation target.”

                                        Full statement here.

                                        Eurozone Sentix shows signs on stabilization, Asia ex-Japan on the rise

                                          Eurozone Sentix Investor Confidence improved to -2.2 in March, up from -3.7 and beat expectation of -3.1. Current Situation index dropped from 10.8 to to 6.3, lowest since September 2016 and the seventh monthly decline. Expectations Index improved to -10.3, up from -17.3. Sentix noted that the indexes are “sending signs of stablisation” and “fueling hopes that there will be no recession. However, “it is too early to give the all-clear”.

                                          And, thematically “investors expect slight support from monetary policy in the coming months from a pause in the interest rate cycle. Nevertheless, the central bank policy barometer does not give the impression that a sustained easing of monetary policy is to be expected. On the one hand, a rapid comeback of the economy would also surprise the central bank and, on the other, investors expect inflationary pressures to rise again.

                                          On development to now in the strong improvement in Asia ex-Japan. Overall Investor Confidence index rose 9.9 to 15.3, highest since August 2018. Current Situation index rose from 22.3 to 24.5. Expectations index rose from -1.8 to 6.5, highest since March 2018. Sentix noted that the Chinese “government’s measures to stimulate economic growth both in fiscal and monetary terms are well received by the investors surveyed by Sentix.

                                          Full release here.