US housing starts rose to 1.62m, building permits rose to 1.73m

    US housing starts rose 3.9% mom to 1615k in August, above expectation of 1550k. Building permits rose 6.0% mom to 1728k, above expectation of 1600k. Also released, current account deficit came in at USD -190B in Q2, versus expectation of USD -187B.

    OECD lowers 2021 global growth forecast slightly to 5.7%

      OECD lowered 2021 global growth forecast  slightly to 5.7%, down from May’s projection of 5.8%. 2022 global growth was revised slightly higher to 4.5%, up from 4.4%. It added, “the global economy is growing far more strongly than anticipated a year ago but the recovery remains uneven, exposing both advanced and emerging markets to a range of risks”.

      It also said there is a “marked variation in the outlook for inflation”. But the inflationary pressures “should eventually fade”. “Consumer price inflation in the G20 countries is projected to peak towards the end of 2021 and slow throughout 2022. Wage growth remains broadly moderate and medium-term inflation expectations remain contained.”

      Chief Economist Laurence Boone said: “Policies have been efficient in buffering the shock and ensuring a strong recovery; planning for more efficient public finances, shifted towards investment in physical and human capital is necessary and will help monetary policy to normalise smoothly once the recovery is firmly established.”

      Full release here.

      S&P 500 broke channel support, risks further decline

        The selloff in US stocks overnight was a rather bearish development for the near term. S&P 500 gapped below 55 day EMA, and dive through medium term channel support without much hesitation. While it managed to pare back some losses to close at 4357.73, it’s capped below 4367.73 structural support.

        The condition for a medium term correction is there with bearish divergence condition in daily MACD. That is, 4545.85 is possibly a medium term top, and fall from there is corrective whole rise from 3233.94 at least. For now, risk will stay on the downside as long as any recovery is capped by 55 day EMA (now at 4415.18). SPX could fall further, for the rest of the year, to 38.2% retracement of 3233.94 to 4545.45 at 4044.70 before finding a bottom.

        RBA Minutes: Economy expected to bounce back as vaccination rates increase and restrictions are eased

          In the minutes of the September 7 RBA meeting, it’s noted, “the outbreak of the Delta variant had delayed, but not derailed, the recovery.” The economy was “expected to bounce back as vaccination rates increase and restrictions are eased” but “there was considerable uncertainty about the timing and pace of the recovery, which was likely to be slower than experienced earlier in 2021”. In the central scenario, growth will return in Q4 and its “pre-Delta path in the second half of 2022”.

          As a result of the delay in recovery and uncertainty about the future, “progress towards the Bank’s goals was likely to take longer and was less assured”. But at the same time, fiscal policy is “more appropriate” in dealing with a “temporary and sharp reduction in private sector incomes”. Hence, RBA decided to taper purchases to AUD 4B per week, but extend the period to mid February 2022.

          RBA also reiterated its commitment to “maintaining highly supportive monetary conditions to achieve a return to full employment in Australia and inflation consistent with the target.” And it will not raise interest rate until 2024.

          Full minutes here.

          RBNZ Hawkesby: Employment at maximum sustainable level, price pressures to feed through

            RBNZ Assistant Governor Christian Hawkesby said in a speech, “while the demand side of the economy has been more resilient than expected when COVID-19 arrived, the disruption to the supply side of the economy has also been more prolonged than anticipated.” Also, the developments combined are “likely to have reduced the level of maximum sustainable employment”.

            He reiterated that in the latest Monetary Policy Statement, it’s noted RBNZ had “more confidence that employment was already at its maximum sustainable level and that pressures on capacity would feed through into more persistent inflation pressures over the medium-term”.

            Thus, the “least regrets policy stance” was to “further reduce the level of monetary stimulus so as to anchor inflation expectations and continue to contribute to maximum sustainable employment.” Also, ” whether or not a monetary policy response would be required in response to future health related lockdowns would depend on whether there was a more enduring impact on inflation and employment”

            Full speech here.

            ECB Schnabel: Asset purchases will remain crucial in the time to come

              ECB Executive Board member Isabel Schnabel said in a speech, “asset purchases were an “indispensable monetary policy instrument during times of market stress and economic downturns”. It also helped to “bolster confidence and shore up the economy and the inflation outlook” after calming the markets.

              “As economic conditions begin to normalise and the inflation outlook improves,” she said, “there is a gradual shift in the way asset purchases benefit the economy as the portfolio rebalancing channel makes way for the signalling channel.”

              “Asset purchases can increasingly serve as a powerful commitment device, reinforcing forward guidance and reducing uncertainty around the future course of monetary policy.”

              She concluded, “given the remaining uncertainty regarding the pandemic and the economic and inflation outlook, our asset purchases – both under the PEPP and the APP – will remain crucial in the time to come, paving the way out of the pandemic and towards reaching our inflation target.”

              Full speech here.

              CAD/JPY to retest key support zone at 88.5/6 with downside acceleration

                CAD/JPY follows other Yen crosses lower today, with downside acceleration. Near term outlook is kept bearish by prior rejection from 55 day EMA. The fall from 91.16 is probably ready to resume through an important support zone.

                The cluster support level include 84.65, 55 day EMA (now at 85.46) and 38.2% retracement of 7380 to 91.16 at 84.52. Sustained break of this level will confirm both the completion of rise from 73.80 and rejection by 91.62 key resistance. In this case, deeper fall would be seen to 61.8% retracement at 80.43.

                AUD/JPY extends decline on risk aversion, could target a test on 77.88 support first

                  AUD/JPY’s fall from 82.01 resumes today on general risk-off sentiments in Asian markets. For now, further decline is expected as long as 80.49 minor resistance holds. Sustained trading below 61.8% retracement of 77.88 to 82.01 at 79.45 will raise the chance that it’s indeed ready to resume whole decline from 85.78 high. Retest of 77.88 low should be seen first.

                  As the fall from 85.78 is now seen as a correction to up trend from 59.85, break of 77.88 would pave the way to 38.2% retracement of 59.85 to 85.78 at 75.87 next. Such development, if happens, could be a prelude in similar selloff in other Yen crosses.

                  Hong Kong HSI takes another beating as selloff in property stocks spreads

                    Asian markets are trading in risk-off mode, as Hong Kong stocks are taking another beating while Japan and China are on holiday. Selloff in shares of the troubled Chinese giant Evergrande Group is spreading to other property stocks. The group has just announced over the weekend to start repaying its wealth management products with real estates.

                    At the time of writing, Hong Kong HSI is down more than -3.4% or -850 pts. As for the near term, 61.8% projection of 29394.68 to 24748.84 from 26560.03 at 23688.90 would be an important level to defend this week. Some support could be seen there to bring at least some consolidations first. However, any further downside acceleration could easy push HSI through the level to 100% projection at 21914.19. That’s a possible scenario considering the FOMC event risk this week.

                    ECB Makhlouf: Fears of excessive euro area inflation are overstated

                      ECB Governing Council member Gabriel Makhlouf said, “I believe that, at the moment, fears of excessive euro area inflation are overstated and that the current price pressures reflect transitory factors that will fade out over time.”

                      But he also admitted, “there is considerable uncertainty about the persistence of price pressures and we need to interpret this (inflation) data and the outputs of our models with caution.”

                      ECB Kazaks: There are some decimals upside in inflation outlook

                        ECB Governing Council member Martins Kazaks said, “if Covid does not surprise on the negative side, there is some upside for the inflation outlook over the medium term.” But he added, “I am talking about decimals here.”

                        “There is perhaps some upside for those numbers to be revised up in the following forecasting rounds,” Kazaks said. “I agree with the current outlook, but I would say that the balance of risks for inflation are somewhat on the upside.”

                        “We hear some anecdotal evidence that there could be some wage pressures down the road, but we have not seen that yet in the data,” he said. “There is no reason to expect that inflation would be permanently very hot. If at some point inflation will be significantly higher than our strategy and monetary-policy mandate, then of course we will know how to react.”

                        Eurozone CPI finalized at 3% yoy in Aug, EU at 3.2% yoy

                          Eurozone CPI was finalized at 3.0% yoy in August, up from July’s 2.2% yoy. The highest contribution to the annual euro area inflation rate came from energy (+1.44%), followed by non-energy industrial goods (+0.65%) and food, alcohol & tobacco and services (both +0.43%).

                          EU CPI was finalized at 3.2% yoy, up from July’s 2.5% yoy. The lowest annual rates were registered in Malta (0.4%), Greece (1.2%) and Portugal (1.3%). The highest annual rates were recorded in Estonia, Lithuania and Poland (all 5.0%). Compared with July, annual inflation remained stable in one Member State and rose in twenty-six.

                          Full release here.

                          UK retail sales dropped -0.9% mom in Aug, ex-fuel sales dropped -1.2% mom

                            UK retail sales dropped -0.9% mom in August, well below expectation of 0.5% mom rise. For the 12-month period, headline sales rose 0.0% yoy versus expectation of 2.6% yoy.

                            Overall sales volume were still up 0.3% in the three months to August, compared with the previous three months. It’s also 4.6% higher than their pre-pandemic levels in February 2020.

                            Ex-fuel sales dropped -1.2% mom, well below expectation of 0.7% mom rise too. For the 12-month period, ex-fuel sales dropped -0.9% yoy versus expectation of 2.5% yoy.

                            Full release here.

                             

                            Silver heading to 22.36 support after rejection by 55 day EMA

                              Silver follows Gold and drops sharply this week. The development should confirm rejection by 55 day EMA and the bearish signal suggests that larger decline from 30.07 is ready to resume. Near term focus is now back on 22.36 support. Break there will target 61.8% projection of 28.73 to 22.36 from 24.86 at 20.92.

                              Also, the rejection by 55 week EMA also carries medium term bearish implication. The whole decline from 30.07 has the potential to drop to as low as 61.8% retracement of 11.67 to 30.07 at 18.69 before completion.

                              New Zealand BusinessNZ manufacturing dropped to 40.1, economic pain being felt

                                New Zealand BusinessNZ manufacturing index dropped to 40.1 in August, down from 62.6, back in contraction. Looking at some more details, production tumbled from 63.9 to 27.7. Employment dropped from 57.9 to 54.5. New orders dropped from 63.7 to 44.4. Finished stocks dropped from 56.8 to 46.1 Deliveries dropped from 56.3 to 33.6.

                                BNZ Senior Economist, Doug Steel stated that “while many anticipate a bounce in activity as the country progresses down alert levels (all going well on the Covid front), today’s PMI clearly demonstrates the economic pain being felt.  This should not be underestimated, even if there is hope for the future. GDP and manufacturing output are expected to fall heavily in Q3.  It is something of a reality check in the afterglow of yesterday’s very strong Q2 GDP outcome.”

                                Full release here.

                                US retail sales rose 0.7% in Aug, ex-auto sales jumped 1.8%

                                  US retail sales rose 0.7% mom to USD 618.7B in August, much better than expectation of -0.7% decline. Ex-auto sales rose 1.80% mom, versus expectation of -0.1% decline. Ex-gasoline sales rose 0.8% mom. Ex-auto, ex-gasoline sales rose 2.0% mom. Total sales for the June 2021 through August 2021 period were up 16.3% from the same period a year ago

                                  Full release here.

                                  US initial jobless claims rose 20k to 332k

                                    US initial jobless claims rose 20k to 332k in the week ending September 11, above expectation of 316k. Four-week moving average of initial claims dropped -4k to 336k, lowest since March 14, 2020.

                                    Continuing claims dropped -187k to 2665k in the week ending September 4, lowest since March 14, 2020. Four-week moving average of initial claims dropped -50k to 2808k, lowest since March 21, 2020.

                                    Full release here.

                                    ECB Rehn confidence to ensure favorable financing conditions when exiting crisis measures

                                      ECB Governing Council member Olli Rehn said while growth in Eurozone is robust, supported is still needed. The outlook is clouded by bottlenecks as well as coronavirus variants.

                                      The central bank is expected to debate in December on timing and the way to wind down the PEPP purchases. Rehn said he’s confident to find a ” viable and meaningful way of ensuring favorable financing conditions when we start our very gradual transition from the crisis measures to the next normal.”

                                      He also urged governments to prepare for the eventual rise in borrowing cost even though a rate hike is “not yet within sight”. “It will nevertheless one day take place,” Rehn said. “This should be taken into account in budgetary planning in all the euro area countries.”

                                      Eurozone exports rose 11.4% yoy in Jul, imports rose 17.1% yoy

                                        Eurozone exports of goods to the rest of the world rose 11.4% yoy in July to EUR 206.0B. Imports rose 17.1% yoy to EUR 185.3B. As a result, Eurozone recorded a EUR 20.7B surplus in trade, Intra-Eurozone trade rose 16.8% yoy to EUR 179.7B.

                                        In seasonally adjusted term, Eurozone exports rose 1.0% mom while imports rose 0.3%. Trade surplus widened from EUR 119.0B to EUR 13.4B, below expectation of EUR 16.8B. Intra-Eurozone trade rose from EUR 175.5B to EUR 178.0B.

                                        Full release here.

                                        Japan: Economy’s pace weakened in severe pandemic situation

                                          Japanese Government’s Cabinet office maintained that the economy “remains in picking up”, but added that “pace has weakened in a severe situation due to the Novel Coronavirus”. In particular, “some weakness s seen recently” in industrial production, even though it’s still “picking up”.

                                          Other assessments are largely unchanged, with private consumption showing weakness further. Business is picking up while exports continue to increase moderately. Corporate profits are also picking up with some weakness in non-manufacturers. Employment situation shows steady movements in some components.

                                          Full release here.