China’s April PMIs came in all weaker than expected. The results raised much doubt on the case of recovery in the economy. And, they suggested that even the post lunar new year seasonal rebound in Mach couldn’t sustain. Hong Kong stocks trade lower after the release but China Shanghai SSE is steady so far. In the currency markets, Australian Dollar is clearly knocked down by the releases.
The official PMI manufacturing dropped to 50.1, down from 50.5 and missed expectation of 50.6. Official PMI non-manufacturing dropped to 54.3, down from 54.8 and missed expectation of 55.0.
Caixin PMI manufacturing dropped to 50.2 in April, down from 50.8 and missed expectation of 50.2. Looking at the details, output and total new work both rose slightly, but with margin fall in overseas new work. Relatively subdued demand conditions led firms to remain reluctant to expand their inventories. Overall inflationary pressures softened. On the positive side, one-year outlook for production improved to an 11-month high.
Commenting on the China General Manufacturing PMI™ data, Dr. Zhengsheng Zhong, Director of Macroeconomic Analysis at CEBM Group said:
“The Caixin China General Manufacturing Purchasing Managers’ Index eased to 50.2 in April, down from a recent high of 50.8 in the previous month, indicating a slowing expansion in the manufacturing sector.
1) The subindex for new orders fell slightly despite remaining in expansionary territory. The gauge for new export orders returned to contractionary territory, suggesting cooling overseas demand.
2) The output subindex dropped. The employment subindex returned to negative territory after hitting a 74-month high in March. According to data from the National Bureau of Statistics, the surveyed urban unemployment rate remained at a relatively high level despite edging down in March, suggesting that pressure on the job market remained.
3) While the subindex for stocks of purchased items returned to contractionary territory, the measure for stocks of finished goods fell more markedly. The gauge for future output edged up, pointing to manufacturers’ desire to produce and stable product demand. The subindex for suppliers’ delivery times rose further despite staying in negative territory, implying improvement in manufacturers’ capital turnover.
4) Both gauges for output charges and input costs edged down. There were only small changes in upward pressure on industrial product prices. We predict that April’s producer price index is likely to remain basically unchanged from the previous month.
“In general, China’s economy showed good resilience in April, yet it stabilized on a weak foundation and is not coming to an upward turning point. The Politburo meeting signalled that in the first quarter of this year China had adjusted its countercyclical policy marginally. As pressure on the economy remains in the second quarter, we expect that there will be minor adjustments to the policy but not a turnaround.”
UK PMI manufacturing dropped to 53.1, pre-Brexit stockpiling continues with solid but slower pace
UK PMI manufacturing dropped to 53.1 in April, down from 55.1 and matched expectation of 53.1. Markit noted that new export business declines. Also, stock-building continues at solid, yet slower, pace.
Rob Dobson, Director at IHS Markit, which compiles the survey:
“The upturn in the UK manufacturing sector eased at the start of the second quarter. Growth of output and new orders slowed, leading to job cuts for the third time in the past four months. The trend in new export business was especially weak, as high stock holdings at clients and slower global economic growth led to reduced demand from key markets such as the European Union, the USA and China. There were also reports of overseas clients acting now to re-route their supply chains away from the UK in advance of Brexit.
“A central theme at UK manufacturers during recent months has been stockpiling activity in advance of Brexit, and this process continued into April. Rates of increase in both inventories of inputs and finished products remained historically rapid, despite cooling from the record highs seen in March. Companies noted that the delay to the scheduled Brexit date meant they had to ensure levels of key inputs remained sufficiently large to cover as broad a range of outcomes as possible in coming months.
“The stock build has clearly still helped support production growth, with a number of companies attributing increased output in April to Brexit-related stock-building.
“Manufacturers’ outlook remained relatively upbeat, however, with over 50% forecasting their output will be higher in 12 months’ time. Companies plan to use new product launches, new technologies and improved marketing strategies to drive growth forward in the coming months. However, Brexit uncertainty continues to weigh on plans, as some firms remain concerned about future growth prospects and the likely impact on output and demand from the unwinding of inventory positions later in the year.”
Full release here.