UK passed non binding vote to reject no-deal Brexit

    Sterling spiked higher after UK Commons passed yesterday a non-binding motion to reject no-deal Brexit under any circumstances. But the Pound quickly retreated again as focus will turn to vote today on whether to ask the EU for Article 50 extension. Also, question is on whether there would be a short extension of a long extension.

    The final motion was voted for by 321 to 278, a majority of 43. The motion reads: “This House rejects the United Kingdom leaving the European Union without a Withdrawal Agreement and a Framework for the Future Relationship”.

    The original motion was changed after the Spelman/Dromey amendment was narrowly passed by 312 to 308, just a mere majority of 4. The original motion reads: “This House declines to approve leaving the European Union without a Withdrawal Agreement and a Framework for the Future Relationship on 29 March 2019; and notes that leaving without a deal remains the default in UK and EU law unless this House and the EU ratify an agreement.”

    Prime Minister Theresa May, however insisted that the votes do not change the fundamental problem. And the only way to rule out no-deal is to vote for a deal. She also warned that if MPs do not vote for a Brexit deal soon, she will have to seek a long article 50 extension, which would mean the UK having to take party in the European elections.

    A European Commission spokesperson quickly responded:: “There are only two ways to leave the EU: with or without a deal. The EU is prepared for both. To take no deal off the table, it is not enough to vote against no deal – you have to agree to a deal. We have agreed a deal with the prime minister and the EU is ready to sign it.”

    GBP breached recent resistance briefly but settles back in established range quickly.

    WTI oil rises further after fall in inventory, but upside to be caped below 60

      WTI crude oil breaks 57.98 resistance earlier today to resume the rally from 42.05. Further rise is seen after EIA reports that US crude supplies dropped by -3.9m barrels in the week ending March 8, versus expectation of 2.7m barrels rise.

      Technically the strong support from rising 55 day EMA is a bullish sign. But upside momentum is unconvincing as seen in daily and 4 hour MACD. Thus, we’d expect strong resistance from 50% retracement of 77.06 to 42.05 at 59.55 to limit upside.

      This level is also close to 55 week EMA at 59.23.

      US PPI slowed to 1.9%, core PPI to 2.5%. Durable goods rose 0.4% but core dropped -0.1%

        US PPI rose 0.1% mom, 1.9% yoy in February, versus expectation of 0.2% mom, 1.9% yoy. Core PPI rose 0.1% mom, 2.5% yoy, versus expectation of 0.2% mom 2.6% yoy.

        Durable goods orders rose 0.4% in January, above expectation of -0.5%. Ex-transport orders dropped -0.1%, below expectation of 0.1%.

        Into US session: Sterling lacks direction as no-deal vote awaited

          Entering into US session, Sterling is the strongest one for today so far. But it should be noted that the pound is just gyrating in range, as markets await no-deal Brexit vote in the parliament at 1900GMT. There will likely be no clearly direction until the UK Commons made up its mind on what it wants collectively. EU is also clearly that if they were to agree to an extension, they needed to know what for first. There was a rumor saying Attorney General Geoffrey Cox might modify his legal advice that could offer some help to PM May. But such rumor is quickly denied.

          Staying in the currency markets, Swiss is currency the second strongest, followed by Euro. New Zealand Dollar is the weakest one, followed by Aussie and then Yen. Such combination shows that there is no clear direction in the market for today.

          In Europe, currently:

          • FTSE is up 0.12%.
          • DAX is up 0.07%.
          • CAC is up 0.42%.
          • German 10-year yield is up 0.015 at 0.072.

          Earlier in Asia:

          • Nikkei dropped -0.99%.
          • Hong Kong HSI dropped -0.39%
          • China Shanghai SSE dropped -1.09%.
          • Singapore Strait Times dropped -0.52%.
          • Japan 10-year JGB yield dropped -0.0151 to -0.045.

          EU Verhofstadt against even 24-hour Brexit extension

            UK Parliament is set to vote on no-deal Brexit today at 1900GMT, which will likely be rejected. Then there will be another vote tomorrow for seeking Article 50 extensions. Responses from the EU so far are not very positive regarding an extension.

            The European Parliament’s lead Brexit spokesman Guy Verhofstadt warned that he would oppose to even 24-hour extension. He said ” I am against every extension, whether an extension of one day, one week, even 24 hours, if it is not based on a clear opinion of the House of Commons for something, that we know what they want.” Verhofstadt also warned that “An extension, where we go beyond the European elections, and the European elections will be hijacked by the Brexiters, and by the whole Brexit issues. We will talk only about that, and not about the real problems, and the real reforms we need in the European Union.”

            EU chief Brexit negotiator repeated his question that “extend this negotiation — what for?” And he reiterated that “if the UK still wants to leave the EU in an orderly manner, this treaty is — and will remain — the only treaty possible”. Barnier also told the European parliament that “We are at a critical point. The risk of no-deal has never been higher. That is the risk of an exit – even by accident – by the UK from the EU in a disorderly fashion. I urge you please not to under-estimate the risk or its consequences.”

            UK Barclay: No Brexit is the bigger risk than no-deal

              UK Brexit Minister Stephen Barclay said today that no Brexit is the bigger risks than no-deal Brexit for the UK. He said that “no deal is going to be very disruptive for the economy and I think no deal also has serious questions for the union”. However, ” no Brexit is catastrophic for our democracy. Between those very unpleasant choices, I think no Brexit is the bigger risk.”

              Germany’s Economy Minister Peter Altmaier expressed said After divisive debates & votes, today can become a turning point.” “Rejecting No-deal-Brexit by a large cross-party majority will unite millions in the UK & in Europe.”

              European Union’s Economic Commissioner Pierre Moscovici said “we have done everything we could do.” And, “it is tome now for the British to say what they want, now that they said what they don’t want.”

              UK announces modest liberalization of tariffs in case of no-deal Brexit

                The UK government announce its temporary tariff regime for no-deal Brexit, designed to minimise costs to business and consumers while protecting vulnerable industries. The temporary regime would apply for up to 12 months as a full consultation and review on a permanent approach to tariffs is undertaken. Under the regime, 87% of imports to the UK by value would be eligible for tariff free access, up from current 80%. Tariffs would still apply to 13% of imports including some agricultural, dairy, auto and some other products.

                Trade Policy Minister George Hollingbery said in the release that

                • Our priority is securing a deal with the European Union as this will avoid disruption to our global trading relationships. However, we must prepare for all eventualities.
                • If we leave without a deal, we will set the majority of our import tariffs to zero, whilst maintaining tariffs for the most sensitive industries.
                • This balanced approach will help to support British jobs and avoid potential price spikes that would hit the poorest households the hardest.
                • It represents a modest liberalisation of tariffs and we will be monitoring the economy closely, as well as consulting with businesses, to decide what our tariffs should be after this transitional period.

                In addition, in case of no-deal Brexit, a temporary approach will be taken to “avoid new checks and controls on goods at the Northern Ireland land border”. The temporary tariffs will also not apply to goods crossing from Ireland to Northern Ireland.

                The tariffs will also apply equally to all other trading partners expect those who were in free trade agreement with the UK. And around 70 developing countries will benefit from preferential access to the UK markets.

                Full statement here.

                Australia consumer sentiment dropped to 98.8, pessimists outnumbered again

                  Australia Westpac Consumer Sentiment dropped sharply by -4.9 to 98.8 in March, down from 103.8. That’s the lowest level since September 2017. Also, with sub-100 reading, pessimists outnumbered optimists again. The release of the national accounts update is seen as a piece of news that triggered the deterioration. Data collected before the March 6 release showed reading of 100.7. Those collected after showed combined reading of 92.7, down -8.

                  Westpac continues to expect a total of -50bps rate cut by RBA by the end of 2019. And they expect the hikes to happen in August and then November.

                  Full release here.

                  UK CBI: Extending Article 50 to close the door on no-deal is now urgent

                    In a rather short statement, UK CBI Direct-General Carolyn Fairbairn expressed the frustration on the parliament’s Brexit circus. She said:

                    “Enough is enough. This must be the last day of failed politics. A new approach is needed by all parties. Jobs and livelihoods depend on it. Extending Article 50 to close the door on a March no-deal is now urgent. It should be as short as realistically possible and backed by a clear plan. Conservatives must consign their red lines to history, while Labour must come to the table with a genuine commitment to solutions. It’s time for Parliament to stop this circus.”

                    Sterling staying in range after May’s Brexit defeat, no-deal vote next

                      Sterling is steadily in range for now awaiting more clarify regarding the path forward for Brexit. UK Prime Minister Theresa May’s Brexit deal was voted down again in the Commons overnight, despite the last minute concessions from EU. MPs voted 391-242 to reject the deal, an insufficient improvement from January’s 432-202 votes. Now, a vote on no-deal Brexit will be carried out at 1900GMT on Wednesday. If no-deal is voted down, there will be another vote on Thursday for seeking Article 50 extension.

                      May warned after the defeat. “Let me be clear. Voting against leaving without a deal and for an extension does not solve the problems we face.” And, with the government at impasse, she asked “Does it wish to revoke Article 50 (announcing intention to leave the EU)? Does it want to hold a second referendum? Or does it want to leave with a deal, but not this deal?”

                      EU President Donald Tusk’s spokesman said the EU has done “all that is possible to reach an agreement” and the solution “can only be found in London.” The results now increases the risk for UK to crash out the EU without a deal. And he emphasized that there needs to be a “credible justification for a possible extension and its duration.”

                      Reactions in Sterling is rather mild. The development was not unexpected except that May and Juncker provided some false hope that lifted the Pound briefly.

                      EU sets out 10 actions on relationship with systemic rival China

                        The European Commission sets out 10 actions to discuss regarding the relationship with China. In the statement, EU described China a “cooperation partner” and “negotiating partner”. Also, it pointed out that China is a “systemic rival promoting alternative models of governance.”

                        Vice-President, High Representative for Foreign Affairs and Security Policy Federica Mogherini, said it’s the aim of the actions to “strengthen our relations with China, in a spirit of mutual respect.” Vice-President Jyrki Katainen, responsible for jobs, growth, investment and competitiveness, said EU would act to “strengthen its competitiveness, ensure more reciprocity and level playing field, and protect its market economy from possible distortions.”

                        There are a few points within the 10 actions that are worth noting.

                        • Action 5: In order to achieve a more balanced and reciprocal economic relationship, the EU calls on China to deliver on existing joint EU-China commitments. This includes reforming the World Trade Organisation, in particular on subsidies and forced technology transfers, and concluding bilateral agreements on investment by 2020, on geographical indications swiftly, and on aviation safety in the coming weeks.
                        • Action 8: To fully address the distortive effects of foreign state ownership and state financing in the internal market, the Commission will identify before the end of 2019 how to fill existing gaps in EU law.
                        • Action 9: To safeguard against potential serious security implications for critical digital infrastructure, a common EU approach to the security of 5G networks is needed. To kickstart this, the European Commission will issue a Recommendation following the European Council.
                        • Action 10: To detect and raise awareness of security risks posed by foreign investment in critical assets, technologies and infrastructure, Member States should ensure the swift, full and effective implementation of the Regulation on screening of foreign direct investment.

                        Full statement here.

                        US update: Pound soft as Brexit vote awaited, no support from ERG and DUP

                          Sterling remains the weakest one for today as markets await Brexit meaningful vote in the UK. Brexit minister is expected to make the closing speech in the Commons, setting up the vote at 7pm London time, or 1900GMT. Ahead of that May warned in the parliament that “if this vote is not passed tonight, if this deal is not passed, then Brexit could be lost.”

                          May secured some changes to the deal, with an instrument and a new statement that provide the UK a way to suspend the Irish backstop. But Attorney General Geoffrey Cox has made sure in his new legal advice that UK could still be trapped inside the backstop forever. And, Cox said that the “legal risks remains unchanged.”.

                          Head of Brexiteer group ERG Bill Cash said “in the light of our own legal analysis and others we do not recommend accepting the government’s motion today”. Northern Ireland’s DUP leader also said the won’t back the deal as “sufficient progress has not be achieved”. May’s Brexit deal lost the meaningful vote by 230 votes back in January. There might be some improvement this time but chance remains slim for the deal to be passed.

                          Elsewhere in the currency markets, Yen is currently the second weakest, followed by Dollar. New Zealand Dollar is the strongest, followed by Euro. There is no clear theme, except Brexit.

                          In other markets:

                          • DOW is down -0.40%.
                          • S&P 500 is up 0.38%.
                          • NASDAQ is up 0.61%.
                          • 10-year yield is down -0.0207 at 2.621.

                          In Europe:

                          • FTSE closed up 0.29%.
                          • DAX closed down -0.17%.
                          • CAC closed up 0.08%.
                          • German 10-year yield is down -0.0143 at 0.057.

                          DUP confirms it won’t back May’s Brexit deal

                            DUP party leader Arlene Foster tweeted that they won’t back May’s Brexit deal in today’s meaningful vote. DUP said in a statement that “sufficient progress has not be achieved” and May just made “limited progress” with the EU.

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                            German Merkel: Pressure from outside is not the right instrument to convince UK parliament

                              German Chancellor Angela Merkel said “clear, far-reaching proposals have been made that take into account the concerns of Britain and that seek to find answers to them.” She wanted an orderly Brexit but the UK parliament now had to decide. But she noted that “pressure from outside is not the right instrument to convince people”. And, “we expressly support this step. But this is not about pressure, it is about partnership where one tries to protect one’s own interests and others’ interests to find a solution”.

                              Yesterday, European Commission President Jean-Claude Juncker warned that “there will be no third chance, there will be no further interpretations of the interpretations, no further assurances of the re-assurances – if the meaningful vote tomorrow fails.” “The choice is clear: it is this deal, or Brexit may not happen at all. Let’s bring the UK’s withdrawal to an orderly end. We owe it to history,” Juncker added.

                              US CPI slowed to 1.5% in Feb, core CPI dropped to 2.1%

                                US headline CPI slowed to 1.5% yoy in February, down from 1.6% yoy and missed expectation of 1.6% yoy. Core CPI also slowed to 2.1% yoy, down from 2.2% yoy and missed expectation of 2.2%. yoy.

                                Full release here.

                                Attorney General Cox said risk of indefinite Irish backstop reduced, not eliminated, Pound dives

                                  Sterling is knocked down sharply after UK Attorney General Geoffrey Cox published is updated legal advice up the new Brexit deal agreed by UK Prime Minister Theresa May and European Commission President Jean-Claude Juncker late Monday. In short, Cox said that he new documents “reduce the risk” the UK is trapped indefinitely in the Northern Ireland backstop. But such risk is not eliminated.

                                  And most importantly, as Cox’s letter concluded: “the legal risk remains unchanged that if through no such demonstrable failure to either party, but simply because of intractable differences, that situation does arise, the United Kingdom would have, at least while the fundamental circumstances remained the same, no internationally lawful means of exiting the Protocol’s arrangements, save by agreement”.

                                  Legal Opinion on Joint Inst… by on Scribd

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                                  UK GDP grew 0.5% mom in Jan, productions beat expectations

                                    UK GDP grew strongly by 0.5% in January, well above expectation of 0.2% mom. Services rose 0.3%, production rose 0.6%, manufacturing rose 0.8% and construction jumped 2.8%. Though, agriculture dropped -1.3%. Rolling three-month growth was unchanged at 0.2% qoq.

                                    ONS Head of GDP Rob Kent-Smith said: “Across the latest three months, growth remained weak with falls in manufacture of metal products, cars and construction repair work all dampening economic growth. These were offset by strong performances in wholesale, IT and health services. This sluggish growth came despite the economy bouncing back from a weak December.”

                                    Full release here.

                                    Also from UK, visible trade deficit widened to GBP -13.1B in January. Industrial production rose 0.6% mom, -0.9% yoy versus expectation of 0.2% mom, -1.3% yoy. Manufacturing production rose 0.8% mom, -1.1% yoy versus expectation o f0.2% mom, -1.9% yoy.

                                    Irish PM Varadkar: The Brexit instrument agreed put assurances on a legal footing

                                      Irish Prime Minister Leo Varadkar hailed that the agreement between UK PM May and EU Juncker was positive. He added that I” hope and trust the withdrawal agreement will now be endorsed by the House of Commons.”

                                      He noted that the “documents are complementary to the withdrawal agreement and political declaration and aim to provide an additional layer of interpretation, clarification and elaboration to the United Kingdom ahead of a further vote in Westminster …”

                                      And, the “instrument agreed yesterday puts those assurances on a legal footing and represents an unambiguous statement by both parties of what has been agreed.” At the same time “it does not re open the withdrawal agreement or undermine the backstop or its application.”

                                      BoJ Amamiya: No debate on exit until price target in sight

                                        BoJ Deputy Governor Masayoshi Amamiya reiterated to the parliament that the priority for the central bank is to achieve the 2% inflation target. He noted that it’s also “important and necessary for the BOJ to communicate to markets its strategy for exiting ultra-loose monetary policy”. However, “debate on an exit must begin only when achievement of our price target comes into sight.”

                                        No the other hand, Finance Minister Taro Aso told the parliament that “I don’t think anyone in the general public is angry about the fact that inflation hasn’t reached 2 percent. And, BoJ “could be a bit more flexible: on the inflation target too.

                                        Australia business conditions and confidence dropped, home loans contracted further

                                          Australia NAB Business Conditions dropped to 4 in February, down from 7 and missed expectation of 5. Business Confidence dropped to 2, down from 4 and missed expectation of 3. Alan Oster, NAB Group Chief Economist said “conditions declined in February to below average levels – with profitability and trading now below average.” Employment index “remained resilient” but that is “likely reflecting that labour demand decisions typically lag economic activity.”

                                          Forward looking indicates point to an “ongoing weakness in business conditions” And, “this may have important implications for both future investment and employment decisions of business.” The survey suggests “little improvement” in Q1 and “some further growing risks to our outlook for business investment in 2019”

                                          Also from Australia, home loans dropped -2.6% mom in January, worse than expectation of -2.0%.