Democrats to offer a deal to end government shutdown without border wall

    The partial US government shutdown is now in its second week. Democrats, who will take control over House with 36-seat majority, plan to vote on a two-part package on Thursday, intending to break the deadlock. One part of the package include a bundle of six measures worth USD 265B for funding non homeland security agencies through September 30. The second part include funding for the Department of Homeland Security through February 8, and provide $1.3 billion for border fencing and $300 million for other border security items including technology and cameras. But there won’t be funding for the border wall that Trump demanded and shut down the government for.

    Democrat leaders Nancy Pelosi and Chuck Schumer said in a joint statement that “While President Trump drags the nation into Week Two of the Trump Shutdown and sits in the White House and tweets, without offering any plan that can pass both chambers of Congress, Democrats are taking action to lead our country out of this mess.”

    The fate of the Democrats’ package is rather uncertain in the Republican controlled Senate. spokesman for Senate Republican leader Mitch McConnell already said “It’s simple: The Senate is not going to send something to the president that he won’t sign.”

    But Trump himself hinted that he might want to make a deal.

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    Steeper yield curve inversion and practically no chance of March Fed hike

      The impressive pre-year-end rebound in US stocks might have caught most attention. But there are two very important developments. Firstly, bond yields took a sharp tumble. 10-year yield closed the year at 2.686, comparing 2018 high at 3.248. Also, it’s actually the lowest since January 2018.

      We’re maintaining our view that TNX is heading back to key support at 38.2% retracement of 1.336 to 3.248 at 2.517, which is close to long term channel support at around 2.49.

      And more importantly, the yield curve hasn’t be that inverted for a long time. It’s clearly inverted from 1-year (2.619) to 2-year (2.504) and then 3-year (2.462). 5-year yield at 2.511 is way below 1 year yield. 6-month yield at 2.486 isn’t too far.

      Another development to note is that markets are now pricing in just around 2.5% chance of a Fed hike in march to 2.50-2.75%.

      And there’s just around 11% chance of a rate hike in 1H.

      It looks like investors are expecting something rather ugly ahead in 2019.

       

      UK PM May urged support to her Brexit deal to turn a corner

        UK Prime Minister Theresa May continued to sell her Brexit agreement in her New Year message. He said that “the Brexit deal I have negotiated delivers on the vote of the British people and in the next few weeks MPs will have an important decision to make.” She emphasized that “if parliament backs a deal, Britain can turn a corner.”

        May added that “the referendum in 2016 was divisive but we all want the best for our country and 2019 can be the year we put our differences aside and move forward together, into a strong new relationship with our European neighbors and out into the world as a globally trading nation,” And, “we have all we need to thrive and if we come together in 2019 I know we can make a success of what lies ahead.”

        MPs are expected to re-start the debate on the Brexit agreement in the week of January 7 and a Commons vote is scheduled for the week of January 14. In the coming days, a focus will be on what further political and even legally assurances the EU will give regarding the non-permanent nature of the Irish backstop.

        China Xi to Trump: History has proven cooperation is best for both sides

          In his New Year address, Chinese President Xi Jinping reminded US President Donald Trump that “history has proved that cooperation is the best choice for both sides.” Xi added that “I attach great importance to the development of China-U.S. relations and am willing to work with President Trump to summarize the experience of the development of China-U.S. relations and implement the consensus we have reached in a joint effort to advance China-U.S. relations featuring coordination, cooperation and stability so as to better benefit the two peoples as well as the people of the rest of the world.”

          The official Xinhua new agency also echoed in the commentary that “At a time when the world is undergoing unprecedentedly profound changes and is fraught with risks and uncertainties, the global community expects even closer collaboration between the two largest economies.”

          Trump tweeted on December 29 that “Just had a long and very good call with President Xi of China. Deal is moving along very well. If made, it will be very comprehensive, covering all subjects, areas and points of dispute. Big progress being made!”. China’s state media also said Xi believed both sides wanted “stable progress”, and China-US ties had reached a “vital stage” on its 40th anniversary.

          It’s believed that Deputy U.S. Trade Representative Jeffrey Gerrish will lead a delegation including Treasury Under Secretary for International Affairs David Malpass, to travel to China in the week of January 7 for face-to-face meeting on trade negotiations.

          Sterling rises broadly, pressing resistance against Dollar and Euro

            Sterling is overwhelmingly the strongest one today, followed by Japanese Yen. Aussie seems to be the third strongest, but it’s momentum is actually far behind the two. On the other hand, Swiss Franc is leading the way down, followed by New Zealand and then Canadian Dollar.

            While the market is thin on holiday, Pound’s strength could be an indication that trader are already starting to adjust their positions. That comes well ahead of the highly anticipated parliamentary vote on Brexit deal in the week of January 14. For now it’s still unlikely for Prime Minister Theresa May’s Brexit agreement to enough votes for approval. And May is seeking political and legal assurances from the EU regarding the Irish backstop.

            Such deadlock should be well understood by the EU. European Commission President Jean-Claude Juncker said over the weekend that “I get the impression that the majority of British members of parliament deeply mistrust Mrs. May and the EU”. And” “people imply that our goal is to keep the U.K. in the EU by any means. He emphasized “that’s not our intention. We just want clarity on the future relations. And we respect the result of the referendum.”

            Separately, UK Trade Minister Liam Fox said there is a “50-50” chance of no Brexit should the deal is voted down. But he emphasized that “that would induce a sense that we had betrayed the people that voted in the referendum.” And,
            “for me, the worst possible outcome of this process would be no Brexit”. But there are rumors there will be cross-party push to delay Brexit date should the deal is voted down.

            GBP/USD’s rise today now puts 1.2811 near term resistance into focus, which is close to 55 day EMA. Considering bullish convergence condition in daily MACD, sustain break of 1.2811 and 55 day EMA will be an early sign of medium term reversal. And further rise would be seen back to 1.3174 structural resistance for confirmation.

            EUR/GBP is already pressing near term support of 0.8931. Firm break there will indicate rejection by 0.9098 key resistance And the rebound from 0.8655 should be over. In that case, deeper fall should be seen back to 0.8810 support and below.

            China PMI manufacturing dropped to first contraction reading since 2016

              The official China PMI manufacturing dropped to 49.4 in December, down from 50.0 and missed expectation of 50.0. It’s also the first contractionary reading since July 2016, and the lowest since February 2016.

              In the release, CLFP noted that China-US trade frictions are starting to direct and indirect impacts on the economy. Both domestic and external demand weakened. In particular, new orders dropped -0.7 to 49.7. New export orders dipped deeper into contraction by -0.4% to 46.6, lowest since 2016. Also, downward pressure on the economy increased in the second half as seen by the persistent decline in the PMI reading.

              Also from China, PMI services rose to 53.8, up from 53.4, and beat expectation of 53.2.

              Asian markets higher, yen low as Trump boasts big progress in US-China trade talks

                Asian stocks are apparently lifted by Trump’s tweet on the “big progress” in trade talks with China. Hong Kong HSI is up 1.27% at the time of writing. Singapore Strait Times is up 0.44%. Japan and China are on holiday though. But at the time time, gain is limited partly due to holiday, and partly on mixed China PMI data. In the currency markets, Yen is the weakest one for today so far while commodity currencies trade higher. but most are trading within Friday’s range.

                Trump tweeted over the weekend that “Just had a long and very good call with President Xi of China. Deal is moving along very well. If made, it will be very comprehensive, covering all subjects, areas and points of dispute. Big progress being made!”. China’s state media also said Xi believed both sides wanted “stable progress”, and China-US ties had reached a “vital stage” on its 40th anniversary.

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                It’s reported that US delegation, led by Deputy U.S. Trade Representative Jeffrey Gerrish with Treasury Under Secretary for International Affairs David Malpass, will travel to China in the week of January 7 for face-to-face meeting.

                Into US session: Dollar weakest, Swiss Franc strongest, USD/CHF accelerates downwards

                  Entering into US session, Dollar and Canadian are the weakest one for today and the week. In particular, USD/CHF suffered renewed selling with a key support level at 0.9848 taken out firmly. That’s also thanks to broad based strengthen in Swiss Franc, which is the strongest one for today and the week. Yen is the second strongest for today but trails behind Euro as the third strongest for the week.

                  European markets are generally higher today. At the time of writing:

                  • FTSE is up 1.77%
                  • DAX is up 1.78%
                  • CAC is up 1.83%
                  • German 10 year yield is up 0.0023 at 0.235
                  • Italian 10 year yield is down -0.0242 at 2.723.
                  • German-Italian spread is below 250.

                  Earlier in Asia

                  • Nikkei closed down -0.31% to 20014.77, still holding above 20000 handle
                  • Hong Kong HSI rose 0.1% to 25504.20
                  • China Shanghai SSE rose 0.44% to 2493.90
                  • Singapore Strait Times rose 0.29% to 3053.43
                  • Japan 10 year JGB yield dropped -0.0232 to 0.001, very close to 0%.

                  With today’s downside acceleration, USD/CHF should have a take on 61.8% retracement of 0.9541 to 1.0128 at 0.9765 first. Firm break there will pave the way back to 0.9541 key support level.

                  UK Hunt: We can absolutely get Brexit deal through parliament

                    UK Foreign Minister Jeremy Hunt is confidence that Prime Minister Theresa May’s Brexit deal could get through the parliament if EU would clarify that the Irish backstop solution is temporary. He told BBC radio that “If it is temporary, then parliament can live with that,” and, “we can get this through, absolutely can.”

                    UK MPs are due to return in the week of January 7 and the debate on Brexit agreement will resume. For now, the rescheduled vote on the agreement will planned to be held in the week of January 14.

                    Swiss KOF dropped to 96.4 on manufacturing and construction

                      Swiss KOF Economic Barometer dropped to 96.3 in December, down from 98.9 and missed expectation of 98.8. KOF said in the release “The main drivers of this development stem from indicators belonging to the producing sector (manufacturing and construction). In addition, a weakly negative signal is sent by the financial sector and private consumption. Favorable export prospects, on the other hand, cushion this downward tendency.”

                      Full release here.

                      BoJ: Global risks tiled to the downside, uncertainties heightened

                        As shown in the Summary of Opinions at the December 19/20 meeting, BoJ board members sounded more concerned with global developments. The summary noted that “regarding the outlook for the global economy, risks have been tilted to the downside on the whole amid heightening uncertainties and a prevailing view that such situation will be protracted.”

                        Specially, it said “looking at the latest data on trade activities in China, both exports and imports marked negative growth on a month-on-month basis, which possibly indicates a deceleration in the Chinese economy”. For Japan, ” it cannot be said that the actual condition of restoration-related demand and production stemming from natural disasters has been strong”. Also, “recovery in exports to China has been weak, and exports as a whole also have shown weak developments.”

                        BoJ also maintained that “it is necessary to persistently continue with the current powerful monetary easing as the momentum toward 2 percent inflation is maintained.” And it warned that “trying to normalize monetary policy prematurely before achieving the price stability target could adversely strengthen the side effects.” The summary also noted that long-term yield should be allowed to “temporarily turn negative” and “move upward and downward more or less symmetrically from around zero percent”.

                        Full BoJ Summary of Opinions

                        47% Americans blamed Trump for government shutdown

                          There is no end in sight to the partial US government shutdown as it enters in the the sixth day. Trump continued to blame the Democrats for “OBSTRUCTION of the desperately needed Wall”. White House spokeswoman Sarah Sanders also said yesterday that “the president has made clear that any bill to fund the government must adequately fund border security,” without specially mentioning the border wall.

                          According to a Reuters/Ipsos poll conducted between Dec 21-26, more Americans blamed Trump for the government shut down. 47% said Trump was responsible, 33% said Congressional Democrats and 8% said Congressional Republicans.

                          Meanwhile, 49% said they opposed to funding for the border wall, and only 36% supported it.

                          US stocks extended historic rebound, but no follow through in Asia, Yen pares loss

                            After initial weakness, US indices reversed and resumed the post Christmas historic rebound. DOW ended up 260pts or 1.14% at 23138.82. S&P 500 rose 0.86% while NASDAQ gained 0.38%. Asian markets are mixed though. At the time of writing, Nikkei is down -0.47%, Hong Kong HSI is up 0.10%, China Shanghai SSE is up 0.38% and Singapore Strait Times is up 0.74%.

                            In the currency markets, Dollar and Canadian are the weakest ones for today so far. Yen is trading to pare back some of yesterday’s losses and is the strongest one for the moment.

                            For the week, Canadian Dollar is overwhelmingly the weakest one. Dollar, Aussie and Kiwi are also among the weakest. On the other hand, Swiss Franc and Euro are the strongest, followed by Yen.

                            The key for DOW will lie in the resistance zone between 100% projection of 21712.52 to 22877.09 from 22267.42 at 23431.98, and 38.2% retracement of 26951.81 to 21712.53 at 23713.93. Failure to break through this zone decisively will keep the rebound rebound 21712.53, corrective in nature, and a relatively short one.

                            US consumer confidence dropped to 128.1, increasing concern of moderating growth pace

                              US Conference Board consumer confidence dropped to 128.1 in December, down from 136.4 and missed expectation of 133.0.

                              Lynn Franco, Senior Director of Economic Indicators at The Conference Board noted in the release that

                              • Consumer Confidence decreased in December, following a moderate decline in November.
                              • Expectations regarding job prospects and business conditions weakened, but still suggest that the economy will continue expanding at a solid pace in the short-term.
                              • While consumers are ending 2018 on a strong note, back-to-back declines in Expectations are reflective of an increasing concern that the pace of economic growth will begin moderating in the first half of 2019.

                              Full release here.

                              US initial jobless claims dropped -1k to 216k

                                US initial jobless claims dropped -1k to 216k in the week ending December 22, slightly below expectation of 220k. Four-week moving average on initial claims dropped -4.75k to 218k.

                                Continuing claims dropped -4k to 1.701M in the week ending December 15. Four-week moving average dropped -1k to 1.676M.

                                Full release here.

                                Into US session: Yen back in control as risk rebound falters, Aussie weakest

                                  Yen and Swiss Franc are back in control today as risk appetite falters again. Major European indices opened higher but quickly reversed. US futures now also point to lower open. DOW rebounded more 1000pts yesterday but it’s set to give back probably more than 400 at open. Today’s US consumer confidence data could be a key to stocks.

                                  Commodity currencies are back in pressure again with Australian leading the way down. Dollar is trading softer against Euro and Sterling.

                                  In Europe, at the time of writing:

                                  • FTSE is down -1.11%
                                  • DAX is down -1.95%
                                  • CAC is down -0.32%
                                  • German 10 year yield is down -0.012 at 0.239. We’d like to point out again that excluding the one day spike low at 0.186 in May, it’s now at the lowest level since July 2017.
                                  • Italian 10 year yield is down -0.007 at 2.814

                                  Earlier in Asia:

                                  • Nikkei rose 3.88% to 20077.62, back above 20000
                                  • Singapore Strait Times rose 1.12%
                                  • But Hong Kong HSI dropped -0.67%
                                  • China Shanghai SSE dropped -0.61% to 2483.09, now very close to 2449.19 low made in October.
                                  • Japan 10 year JGB yield dropped -0.0039 to 0.023.

                                  ECB uncertain if US-China trade truce would lead to significant de-escalation of trade tensions

                                    In the Monthly Bulletin released today, ECB warned that “signs of moderating momentum are emerging” in the global economy. And “activity is expected to decelerate in 2019 and remain steady thereafter.” And that “reflects the projected cyclical slowdown across advanced economies and in China.”

                                    The central bank also noted that “The intensification of trade tensions between the United States and China should weigh on activity in both countries. While the global impact is still judged to be relatively limited, heightened uncertainty about future trade relations may adversely affect confidence and investment.”

                                    ECB added that “While the temporary truce between the United States and China sent a positive signal, there remains considerable uncertainty as to whether the talks will lead to a significant de-escalation of US-China trade tensions.”

                                    For Eurozone economy, ECB noted the slowdown in 2018 has been “driven largely by external factors, in particular the weakness in external demand.” And, “much like the strengthening of growth in 2017, the slowdown in 2018 has been driven by net exports. Trade dynamics have been normalising as global growth has fallen back towards potential levels.

                                    Nevertheless, ECB also said “All in all, the recent slowdown in growth has not, thus far, called into question the fundamentals of the current economic expansion.”

                                    Full ECB monthly bulletin here.

                                    China accelerating laws on IP protection, face-to-face meeting with US in Jan

                                      China is accelerating legislation to protect intellectual property rights of foreign investments. Draft laws has been submitted to the Standing Committee of the National People’s Congress for first review. Strong wordings were used in the draft like “official authorities and their staff shall not use administrative means to force the transfer of technology.” The Committee will being a session on Sunday and then hold “public” consultations until February 24.

                                      China’s Ministry of Commerce spokesman Gao Feng said today that there are plans for face-to-face meeting with the US over trade in January. In the mean time, “intensive” phone calls are on-going despite the Christmas break. Separately, Bloomberg reported that a US delegation will travel to Beijing in the week of January 7. Deputy U.S. Trade Representative Jeffrey Gerrish will lead the Trump administration’s team, including Treasury Undersecretary for International Affairs David Malpass.

                                      Trump considering executive order to ban US purchase of China’s Huawei and ZTE products

                                        Reuters reported, citing three unnamed sources, that Trump is considering to sign an executive order as early as in January to indirectly limit US companies purchases of equipment from China’s tech giants Huawei and ZTE. The executive order could invoke the so called International Emergency Economic Powers Act that gives the president authority to regulate companies on national securities ground. It’s believed that, though, Huawei or ZTE wouldn’t be directly named.

                                        China’s Foreign Ministry spokesperson Hua Chunying declined to comment on the order. But she said “it’s best to let facts speak for themselves when it comes to security problems.” She added, “some countries have, without any evidence, and making use of national security, tacitly assumed crimes to politicize, and even obstruct and restrict, normal technology exchange activities.” And, “this in reality is undoubtedly shutting oneself off, rather than being the door to openness, progress and fairness.”

                                        EU Oettinger: Will tolerate France deficit as one-time exception, but urged Macron to continue fiscal reforms

                                          EU Budget Commissioner Guether Oettinger said that French President Emmanuel Macron has “lost authority” by having a budget that exceed EU’s 3% limit. He referred to France announcement last week that the budget deficit could rise to 3.2% in 2019, instead of 2.8% as originally planned.

                                          Though, Oettinger expressed his empathy that Macron was under political pressure from violent protests to ease the impact of fiscal reforms. He said an interview that “under this condition, we will tolerate a national budget deficit higher than three percent as a one-time exception.” However, he also emphasized “it must not continue beyond 2019.”

                                          Oettinger said Macron “remains a strong supporter of the European Union”. And, “It crucial now that Macron continues his reform agenda, especially in the labor market, and that France remains on its growth track.”