Chinese VP Liu said substantial progress made for a phased US-China trade deal

    Chinese Vice Premier Lieu He said on Saturday that US and China have made “substantial progress in many fields” in trade negotiations earlier this month. And, that laid an “important foundation for the signing of a phased agreement”. He added that “China and the US can meet each other half way, based on equality and mutual respect, addressing each other’s core concerns, striving to create a good environment and achieving both sides’ common goals.”

    It’s believed that teams from both sides are working towards the deadline of APEC meeting in Chile on November 16-17. Presidents from both countries could make use of the opportunity to side the phase one of the trade agreement. However, at this point, intellectual property protections, currencies and financial services are expected to be covered. But the depth of the agreement is uncertain. Some speculated that it could be “super light” for rebuilding trust first.

    Lagarde: ECB negative rates hasn’t hit bottom yet

      Incoming ECB President Christine Lagarde talked about the challenges to the global economy in the CBS News “60 Minutes” program. She warned that US President Donald Trump has “many keys” that would “unlock the uncertainty of the risks”. The biggest key was in relation to “predictability and, and certainty of the terms of trade”. Also, she emphasized “market stability should not be the subject of a tweet here or a tweet there. It requires consideration, thinking, quiet and measured and rational decisions.”

      Europe is facing increasing fears of recession, as led by slump in manufacturing. And the room for more monetary stimulus by ECB is very limited, given that rates are already negative. Lagarde said “there’s a limit to what central bankers can do. There’s a limit to how far and how deep you go into negative territory.” However, she added, “There’s a bottom to everything, but we’re not at that bottom at this point in time.” The interview was done in September though.

      Sterling mildly lower as UK seeks another Brexit extension

        Sterling opens the week mildly lower but loss is so far very limited. The House of Commons voted on Saturday to withhold the decision on UK Prime Minister Boris Johnson’s Brexit instead. Instead, MPs forced Johnson to seek another three-month extension from EU first. While initially refused, Johnson eventually sent a delay request to EU, without signing it.

        At this point, it’s generally viewed that UK is still on track for orderly Brexit, just deferred. The vote on the Withdrawal Agreement Bill could still be held on Tuesday, after Johnson makes another attempt on Monday to get Parliament to sign off on the principle of his deal. And, if Johnson wins, the extension request could be withdrawn and Brexit will happen on October 31.

        The Times of London reported that EU is ready to approve a three-month flexible extensions. UK could leave EU earlier if the Parliament could ratify a deal. Or, Germany could push for a longer extension, pushing the deadline well into June 2020, if the UK government meets are serious obstacles.

        The UK government activated the so-called “Operation Yellowhammer” on Sunday, entering the “final, most intensive stage” of disorderly Brexit preparation. Quoted by Bloomberg, a government official said, “with less than two weeks until 31 October, hundreds of civil servants will from today move to work on these operational matters.”

        UK Johnson forced to seek Brexit delay after losing Letwin amendment

          UK Prime Minister Boris Johnson’s effort to end Brexit drama failed, at least for now, after suffering humiliating defeat in the House of Commons today. MPs passed an amendment tabled by former Conservatives Minister Oliver Letwin by 322 to 306. Under the amendment, the so-called Benn act was trigger that forces Johnson to seek Brexit extension through January 31, 2020. And, the meaningful vote on the Brexit deal wouldn’t be held today. Johnson said immediate that he will not negotiate a further delay with the EU. But in doing so, he could in the end face being held in contempt of court.

          Meanwhile, Europe Commission spokesperson quickly said “The European commission takes note of the vote in the House of Commons today on the so-called Letwin amendment meaning that the withdrawal agreement itself was not put to vote today. It will be for the UK government to inform us about the next steps as soon as possible.”

          The Pound, and other European majors, might suffer some setback as the week opens. But Johnson is generally expected to concede and seek a delay. And EU is not expected to reject it despite all the hassles. Thus, any setback could be temporary. And the guesses on whether Johnson would get enough votes for his deal would continue.

          ECB Holzmann: It needs too much liquidity to reach inflation target

            ECB Governing Council member Robert Holzmann said “in an environment of highly fixed inflation expectations, it becomes too expensive and difficult to reach the (inflation) target, you need too much liquidity to do it.”

            And, “even if you can reach it, it’s useful to think of a lower target, which could be 1.5%, which is my preference. But if somebody said 1.2%, I would not say no either.”

            Fed Clarida: Baseline outlook favorable but economy confronts some evident risks

              Fed Vice Chairman Richard Clarida reiterated that looking ahead, “monetary policy is not on a preset course”. FOMC will “proceed on a meeting-by-meeting basis to assess the economic outlook as well as the risks to the outlook.” Also, Fed will “act as appropriate to sustain growth and achieve dual mandate.

              Clarida also repeated that the economy is “in a good place” and the “baseline outlook is favorable”. But the economy “confronts some evident risks”. In particular, he noted, ” Business fixed investment has slowed notably since last year, exports are contracting on a year-over-year basis, and indicators of manufacturing activity are weakening. Global growth estimates continue to be marked down, and global disinflationary pressures cloud the outlook for U.S. inflation.”

              Clarida’s full speech here.

              Kaplan: Fed not in full-fledged rate cutting cycle

                Dallas Fed President Robert Kaplan said that the US is not yet heading into a “full-fledged rate cutting cycle”. He said “the debate we are having around the table is, there is a risk that slowing global growth and weak business investment” is moving beyond manufacturing and capex. On the other hand, “consumer is strong” and is expected to continue, even though it’s “fragile”.

                Kaplan added, “We therefore took action in July and took action in September. I don’t view this as starting a full fledged rate cutting cycle … But it is appropriate to adjust the stance of monetary policy in a more limited, restrained way.”

                FT predicts Johnson’s Brexit deal to be defeated by 318 to 321

                  Sterling remains steady today as traders are all holding their bets ahead of tomorrow’s crucial vote on the new Brexit withdrawal agreement. UK Prime Minister Boris Johnson will hold a cabinet meeting at 1500GMT in Downing Street today, in effort to secure support for the bill. At this point, there is no sign that Northern Ireland’s DUP is changing their stance against the plan. ERG chair is holding the cards on his chest. The group is due to meet tomorrow and make a recommendation but Guardian reported that most of the “Spartans” are likely to support. Labour MP John Mann has predicted that “more than nine” of his parliamentary colleagues will vote for Johnson’s deal

                  Financial Times predict that Johnson’s deal would be voted down by 318-321. The possible supporters include 259 Conservatives, 28 hardline Eurosceptic Conservatives, 20 independent Conservatives, 7 Labour rebels, 3 independents and 1 Lib Dem. The reported noted: “Analysis by the Financial Times suggests that unless the prime minister can persuade the DUP to drop its opposition, or persuade several Labour MPs or independent parliamentarians to support the deal, Mr Johnson will struggle to win a House of Commons majority.”

                  China GDP growth slowed to 6% in Q3, worst since 1992

                    China’s GDP growth slowed further to 6.0% yoy in Q3, down from 6.2% yoy in Q2 and missed expectation of 6.1% yoy. That’s also the worst pace since Q1 of 1992, the earliest quarterly data on record. National Bureau of Statistics spokesman Mao Shengyong said China was ” faced with mounting risks and challenges both at home and abroad”. But he attempted to tone down the situation and said ” the national economy maintained overall stability … and improved living standard.” He also added there was ample room for adjustments on monetary policy,

                    The weak data raised concern that the slowdown this year could be worse than originally expected, as trade war with US weigh. While there appears to be some progresses on trade negotiations, the imposed tariffs are remaining. Uncertainties continued to weigh on business sentiments too. Growth could slow further below 6% handle in Q4.

                    Nevertheless, on the positive side, industrial production grew 5.8% yoy in September, comfortably beat expectations of 5.0% yoy. That’s also a notably improvement from 4.4% yoy in August. Retail sales growth accelerated to 7.8% yoy, up from 7.5% yoy and matched expectations. Fixed asset investment, however, slowed to 5.4% ytd yoy, down from 5.5% and matched expectations.

                    Japan CPI core slowed to 0.3%, lowest since Apr 2017

                      Japan CPI core (all items ex-fresh food), slowed to 0.3% yoy in September, down from 0.5% yoy, matched expectation of 0.3% yoy. That’s also the lowest level in more than two years since April 2017, and drifted further away from BoJ’s 2% target. All items CPI slowed to 0.2% yoy, down from 0.3% yoy and matched expectations. CPI core-core (all items ex-fresh food and energy) slowed to 0.5% yoy, down form 0.6% yoy, matched expectation but remained sluggish.

                      Japan Finance minister Taro Aso said yesterday that the government was ready to ramp up stimulus to guard against risks from slowing global growth and US-China trade tensions. He said after a meeting of G20 finance leaders, “Given uncertainty over the global economy, exports are falling and weighing on manufacturers’ output. But the weakness has yet to spread to non-manufacturers or domestic demand.

                      Ado added, “if we need to compile some form of an economic stimulus package, we are ready to take various types of fiscal measures flexibly”. He also emphasized that “When you look back at the problems Japan faced, including deflation, they can’t be fixed by monetary policy alone. You need a coordinated monetary and fiscal response.”

                      Separately, the good news is that the government estimated the US-Japan trade deal will boost Japan’s economy by 0.8%. There will be around JPY 4T contribution to GDP based on its fiscal 2018 figures. Also, the deal will create around 280k jobs.

                      Fed Williams: Economy in pretty good place with very resilient consumers

                        New York Fed President John Williams said yesterday that the economy is in a “pretty good place” and consumption has been “very resilient”. While consumer spending is a lagging indicator, data on asset prices, employment growth and wage growth support positive outlook.

                        Fed policymakers factored in some uncertainties during the decisions for rate cuts back in July and September. The factors include global slowdown, low inflation and trade tensions. However, Williams added, “I don’t want to have this narrative that we still have the same conditions out there so does it mean we need to take further and further action.” And, “what we need to do is weigh or consider how those factors are influencing the outlook.”

                        US oil inventories rose 9.3m barrels, well above expectation of 2.7m

                          US commercial crude oil inventories (excluding those in the Strategic Petroleum Reserve) increased by 9.3m barrels in the week ending October 11, much higher than expectation of 2.7m barrels. At 434.9m barrels, crude oil inventories are about 2% above the five year average for this time of year.

                          WTI crude oil remains in tight range after the release, showing little reactions. Outlook is unchanged that further decline cannot be ruled out. But we’d expect strong support form around 50 psychological level to contain downside. This level is also close to 61.8% retracement of 42.05 to 66.49 at 51.38. On the upside, break of 54.71 will target 63.04 resistance.

                          DUP said it won’t support Johnson’s new Brexit deal

                            Sterling pares back some of earlier gains after Northern Ireland’s DUP said it won’t support UK Prime Minister Boris Johnson’s new Brexit deal. In a statement, DUP said: “Following confirmation from the Prime Minister that he believes he has secured a ‘great new deal’ with the European Union the Democratic Unionist Party will be unable to support these proposals in Parliament.:

                            It added: “these proposals are not, in our view, beneficial to the economic well-being of Northern Ireland and they undermine the integrity of the Union…. it is our view that these arrangements would not be in Northern Ireland’s long term interests.”

                            Philly Fed survey dropped to 5.6, price pressure moderated

                              Philadelphia Manufacturing Business Outlook Diffusion Index dropped -6 pts to 5.6, missed expectation of 7.1. The percentage of firms reporting increases (27%) this month narrowly exceeded the percentage reporting decreases (21%). Price paid index dropped -16 pts to 16.8, suggesting price pressures moderated.

                              Philly Fed noted: “Responses to the October Manufacturing Business Outlook Survey suggest growth in manufacturing activity this month. Although they remained positive, the indicators for general activity and shipments fell from their levels in September. The firms reported an improvement in both new orders and employment this month. The survey’s future indexes indicate that respondents continue to expect growth over the next six months.”

                              Full release here.

                              US initial jobless claims rose to 214k, above expectation of 212k

                                US initial jobless claims rose 4k to 214k in the week ending October 12, slightly above expectation of 212k. Four-week moving average of initial claims rose 1k to 214.75k. Continuing claims dropped -10k to 1.679m in the week ending October 5. Four-week moving average of continuing claims rose 3.5k to 1.670m.

                                Full release here.

                                China MOFCOM: Final goal of trade talks is to end trade war and remove all tariffs

                                  Chinese Ministry of Commerce spokesperson Gao Feng said today that the “final goal” of US-China trade negotiation is to “end the trade war and cancel all additional tariffs”. He added, “this would benefit China, the U.S. and the whole world. We hope that both sides will continue to work together, advance negotiations, and reach a phased agreement as soon as possible.”

                                  Also, Gao admitted that “Since this year, under the effect of China-US trade frictions, trade and investment between the U.S. and China have fallen”. “This fully demonstrates that trade wars have no winners”, he added.

                                  Sterling rises as Brexit deal finally clinched in Brussels

                                    Sterling surges on news that a Brexit deal is finally clinched in Brussels today, after marathon discussions this week. The news also take stocks and commodity currencies higher. The agreement came just a few hours ahead of the EU summit. European Commission President Jean-Claude Juncker said in a letter that he would recommend EU27 leaders to approve the deal. And it’s a “high time” to complete the Brexit process.

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                                    UK Prime Minister Boris Johnson also said “we have a great new Brexit deal”. His spokesperson added that Johnson is confidence that the new Brexit deal will go forward for a vote in the parliament on Sunday. And, “The public would expect if the deal is passed, for MPs to do everything they can to pass it on time and yes we are confident that we can do that, referring to leaving EU on October 31.

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                                    Australia NAB business confidence dropped to -2, conditions improved to 1

                                      Australia quarterly NAB Business Confidence dropped from 5 to -2 in Q2. Current Business Confidence improved from 1 to 2. However, Business Confidence for the next 3 months dropped from 12 to 9. Business confidence for the next 12 months dropped from 23 to 20. Capex plans for the next 12 months also dropped from 24 to 21.

                                      According to Alan Oster, NAB Group Chief Economist: “There are tentative signs that the trend decline in business conditions since mid-2108 has slowed, but conditions remain below average with only a small increase in Q3. Business confidence saw a sharp fall in Q3 more than reversing the surprising bounce in Q2. It appears that any post-election optimism has faded despite very low interest rates following the back to back interest rate cuts mid-year”.

                                      Full release here.

                                      Australia unemployment rate dropped to 5.2%, Aussie lifted mildly

                                        Australian dollar is lifted by decline in unemployment rate as data showed. While the improvement is welcomed by RBA, it’s far from being enough to confirm a pause in the easing cycle. The economy added 14.7k jobs in September, above expectation of 10.0k. Full-time employment grew 26.2k while part-time employment dropped -11.4k. Unemployment rate dropped -0.1% to 5.2% but participation rate also dropped -0.1% to 66.1%.

                                        The seasonally adjusted unemployment rate increased by 0.2% in New South Wales (4.5%), and by 0.1 % in Queensland (6.5%). Decreases were recorded in South Australia (down 1.0% to 6.3%, following a cumulative increase of 1.3% over the previous two months), Victoria (down 0.2% to 4.7%) and Tasmania (down 0.2% to 6.2%), with Western Australia recording no change.

                                        Full release here.

                                        EU ready to approve Brexit deal, awaiting UK Commons support

                                          There is increasing optimism that a Brexit deal could finally be agreed by UK and EU, as soon as on Thursday. French President Emmanuel Macron said “I want to believe that a deal is being finalized and that we can approve it tomorrow [Thursday].” German Chancellor Angela Merkel also said she is increasingly of the belief” that an agreement would be reached. Earlier, European Council President Donald Tusk also noted “theoretically we could accept a deal tomorrow.”

                                          The plan to publish a full legal text ahead of EU summit on Thursday and Friday, however, was put on hold, due to uncertainties on the British side. EU leaders are ready to approve the deal on condition of backing from UK House of Commons, at a special sitting on Saturday. ERG leader Steve Baker said after a backbench 1922 meeting that the deal in the works “could well be tolerable”. But the big question lies in Northern Ireland’s DUP.