EUR/AUD’s pull back last week was deeper than expected. But subsequent rebound and break of 1.6423 minor resistance retains near term bullishness. Initial bias is now back on the upside this week for 1.6593 resistance first. Break there will resume whole rise from 1.5962 for 1.6786 high next. On the downside, break of 1.6256 will target 1.6106 support and possibly below.

In the bigger picture, EUR/AUD drew support from 55 week EMA and rebounded strongly again. The development indicates that up trend from 1.1602 (2012 low) is still in progress. Further rise should be seen to 61.8% retracement of 2.1127 (2008 high) to 1.1602 at 1.7488. This will remain the favored case as long as 1.5962 support holds.

In the longer term picture, the rise from 1.1602 long term bottom (2012 low) is still in progress for 61.8% retracement of 2.1127 to 1.1602 at 1.7488. This will remain the favored case as long as 1.5962 remains intact. However, firm break of 1.5962 will be an early sign of major topping and turn focus to 1.5346 key support for confirmation.

EUR/AUD remained bounded in the consolidation form 1.6033 last week and overall outlook is unchanged. Initial bias stays neutral this week for some more sideway trading. On the downside, decisive break of 1.6033 will resume the down trend from 1.9799. Nevertheless, on the upside, break of 1.6585 resistance should turn bias to the upside for stronger rebound.

In the bigger picture, whole up trend from 1.1602 (2012 low) might have completed at 1.9799. Deeper fall could be seen to 55 month EMA (now at 1.5792). Sustained break there will pave the way to 61.8% retracement of 1.1602 to 1.9799 at 1.4733. This will remain the preferred case now as long as 1.6586 resistance holds.

In the longer term picture rise from 1.1602 (2012 low) could have already completed with three waves up to 1.9799. The development suggests that long term range trading is extending with another medium term down leg. Sustained trading below 55 month EMA (now at 1.5792) will further affirm this case and target 1.1602/3624 support zone.

Daily Pivots: (S1) 1.6257; (P) 1.6293; (R1) 1.6326; More…

EUR/AUD’s rally continues today and reaches as high as 1.6363 so far. Intraday bias remains on the upside and and current rise from 1.5683 should target 61.8% projection of 1.5683 to 1.6262 from 1.6052 at 1.6410 first. Break will target 100% projection at 1.6631 next. On the downside, below 1.6275 minor support will turn intraday bias neutral first. But retreat should be contained well above 1.6052 support to bring rise resumption.

In the bigger picture, as long as 1.5346 support holds, outlook will still remain bullish. Up trend from 1.1602 (2012 low) is expected to resume sooner or later. Break of 1.6765 will target 61.8% retracement of 2.1127 (2008 high) to 1.1602 at 1.7488 next. However, firm break of 1.5346 key support will indicate trend reversal, with bearish divergence condition in weekly MACD, and turn outlook bearish.

Daily Pivots: (S1) 1.4750; (P) 1.4846; (R1) 1.4901; More…

EUR/AUD is staying in consolidation from 1.4965 and intraday bias remains neutral first. Further rise is in favor as long as 1.4663 minor support holds. On the upside, break of 1.4965 will resume the rise from 1.4281 towards 1.5396 resistance. On the downside, however, break of 1.4663 minor support will turn bias back to the downside for retesting 1.4281 low.

In the bigger picture, down trend from 1.9799 is still in progress. Break of 1.4318 low will target 61.8% projection of 1.9799 to 1.5250 from 1.6434 at 1.3623, which is close to 1.3624 long term support (2017 low). This will remain the favored case now as long as 1.5396 resistance holds.

Daily Pivots: (S1) 1.6060; (P) 1.6103; (R1) 1.6142; More…

Intraday bias in EUR/AUD remains neutral at this point. With 1.6178 minor resistance intact, further decline is expected. On the downside, decisive break of 1.6033 will resume larger down trend from 1.9799. Next near term target is 100% projection of 1.6872 to 1.6122 from 1.6420 at 1.5984. On the upside, firm break of 1.6178 minor resistance will suggest short term bottoming, after drawing support from 1.6033 low. Intraday bias will be turned back to the upside for 1.6420 resistance first.

In the bigger picture, price action from 1.9799 are seen as developing into a corrective pattern. The question is whether it’s a sideway pattern or a deep correction. On the downside, sustained break of 1.6033 will suggest it’s the latter case and target 61.8% retracement of 1.1602 (2012 low) to 1.9799 at 1.4733. On the upside, break of 1.6827 resistance will favor the former case and bring stronger rebound.

EUR/AUD’s rebound and break of 1.5849 suggests that whole pattern from 1.5250 is resuming. Initial bias is mildly on the upside this week. Sustained trading above 38.2% retracement of 1.6827 to 1.5250 at 1.5852 will bring further rise to 1.6033 key support turned resistance. On the downside, though, break of 1.5657 will turn bias back to the downside for 1.5418 support first.

In the bigger picture, price actions from 1.9799 are developing into a deep correction, to long term up trend from 1.1602 (2012 low). Deeper fall would be seen to 61.8% retracement of 1.1602 to 1.9799 at 1.4733. Medium term outlook will remain bearish as long as 1.6033 support turned resistance holds, even in case of strong rebound. However, firm break of 1.6033 will argue that such decline has completed, and turn focus to 1.6827 structural resistance for confirmation.

In the longer term picture, rise from 1.1602 (2012 low) should have already completed with three waves up to 1.9799 (2020 high). Fall from there is seen as a medium term to long term down leg as a long term down trend, or a sideway pattern. We’ll assess the odds again at a later stage.

Daily Pivots: (S1) 1.4791; (P) 1.4834; (R1) 1.4883; More…

EUR/AUD is staying in consolidation from 1.4965 and intraday bias stays neutral. Further rally is in favor as long as 1.4663 minor support holds. On the upside, break of 1.4965 will resume the rise from 1.4281 towards 1.5396 resistance. On the downside, however, break of 1.4663 minor support will turn bias back to the downside for retesting 1.4281 low.

In the bigger picture, down trend from 1.9799 is still in progress. Break of 1.4318 low will target 61.8% projection of 1.9799 to 1.5250 from 1.6434 at 1.3623, which is close to 1.3624 long term support (2017 low). This will remain the favored case now as long as 1.5396 resistance holds.

Daily Pivots: (S1) 1.5681; (P) 1.5724; (R1) 1.5788; More…

Intraday bias in EUR/AUD remains on the upside for the moment. As noted before, corrective fall from 1.5976 has completed at 1.5254. Decisive break of 1.5749 should pave the way to retest 1.5976 high. On the downside, below 1.5605 minor support will turn intraday bias neutral first.

In the bigger picture, it’s still early to confirm if rise from 1.4281 represents bullish trend reversal. But as long as 1.5271 support holds, such rally is in favor to continue. Break of 1.5976 will target 1.6434 key resistance next. On the other hand, firm break of 1.5271 will retain medium term bearishness instead.

Daily Pivots: (S1) 1.5500; (P) 1.5547; (R1) 1.5606; More….

Despite jumping to 1.5690, subsequent sharp fall and break of 1.5487 minor support argues that rebound from 1.5271 has completed already, ahead of 1.5773 support turned resistance as expected. EUR/AUD was limited limited by 55 day EMA. Intraday bias is turned back to the downside for 1.5271 low first. Break there will resume whole fall from 1.6189 to 1.5153 key support next.

In the bigger picture, rally from 1.3624 (2017 low) should have completed at 1.6189 already, ahead of 1.6587 key resistance (2015 high). 1.6189 is seen as a medium term top. Deeper fall would be seen to 38.2% retracement of 1.3624 to 1.6189 at 1.5209 first. Decisive break there will pave the way to 61.8% retracement at 1.4604. In that case, we’ll look for bottoming again below 1.4604. On the upside, firm break of 1.5773 support turned resistance is needed to indicate completion of the fall from 1.6189. Otherwise, further decline is expected in medium term, even in case of strong rebound.

Daily Pivots: (S1) 1.4547; (P) 1.4694; (R1) 1.4787; More…

Break of 1.4687 support suggests that corrective rebound from 1.4318 has completed with three waves up to 1.5053. Intraday bias is back on the downside for retesting 1.4318. Firm break there will resume larger down trend. On the upside however, break of 1.5053 will resume the rebound from 1.4318 to target 61.8% retracement of 1.6223 to 1.4318 at 1.5495.

In the bigger picture, as long as 1.5354 support turned resistance holds, larger down trend form 1.9799 (2020 high) is still expected to continue. On resumption, next target is 61.8% projection of 1.9799 to 1.5250 from 1.6434 at 1.3623, which is close to 1.3624 long term support (2017 low). However, firm break of 1.5354 will indicate medium term bottoming and bring stronger rally.

EUR/AUD’s rally from 1.5846 continued last week and outlook is unchanged. Corrective fall from 1.6785 should have completed with three waves down to 1.5846. Initial bias remains on the upside this week for 1.6513 resistance. Firm break there will confirm this case and target 1.6785 high next. On the downside, though, break of 1.6142 minor support will mix up the outlook and turn intraday bias neutral first.

In the bigger picture, with 38.2% retracement of 1.4281 to 1.6785 at 1.5828 intact, rally from 1.4281 is still in progress. Firm break of 1.6785 will confirm rally resumption. Rejection by 1.6785 will extend the corrective pattern with another fall leg. But outlook will stay bullish as long as 1.5828 holds.

In the longer term picture, it’s still early to decide if rise from 1.4281 is resuming whole up trend from 1.1602 (2012 low). But in either case, further rally is in favor as long as 1.5254 support holds. Next target is 61.8% retracement of 1.9799 to 1.4281 at 1.7691.

Daily Pivots: (S1) 1.5894; (P) 1.5950; (R1) 1.5990; More…

No change in EUR/AUD’s outlook as further rise is expected with 1.5743 support intact. Rebound from 1.5354 will target 161.8% projection of 1.5354 to 1.5743 from 1.5446 at 1.6075 next. On the downside, however, break of 1.5743 resistance turned support will mix up the near term outlook and turn intraday bias neutral first.

In the bigger picture, the strong rebound from 1.5354 invalidates the case of imminent downside breakout, and turn medium term outlook neutral again. Such rise is seen as the third leg of the corrective pattern from 1.5250. Further rally could be seen through 1.6434 resistance. On the downside, however, break of 1.5446 support will turn focus back to 1.5250 low.

Daily Pivots: (S1) 1.4351; (P) 1.4445; (R1) 1.4496; More…

Intraday bias in EUR/AUD remains on the downside for the moment. Current decline from 1.5396 should target 1.4318 support first. Firm break there will resume larger down trend to medium term projection level at 1.3623. On the upside, break of 1.4804 resistance is needed to indicate short term bottoming. Otherwise, risk will stay on the downside in case of recovery.

In the bigger picture, down trend from 1.9799 is still in progress. Break of 1.4318 low will target 61.8% projection of 1.9799 to 1.5250 from 1.6434 at 1.3623, which is close to 1.3624 long term support (2017 low). This will remain the favored case now as long as 1.5396 resistance holds.

Daily Pivots: (S1) 1.6316; (P) 1.6451; (R1) 1.6521; More…

Intraday bias remains neural for consolidation above 1.6033 temporary low first. Further decline is in favor as long as 1.6772 resistance holds. On the downside, break of 1.6033 will resume whole decline from 1.9799 and target next support level at 1.5346. On the upside, though, break of 1.6772 will indicate short term bottoming and turn bias to the upside for rebound.

In the bigger picture, whole up trend from 1.1602 (2012 low) might have completed at 1.9799. Deeper fall could be seen to 61.8% retracement of 1.1602 to 1.9799 at 1.4733. This week remain the preferred case now as long as 1.7194 resistance holds.

Daily Pivots: (S1) 1.6468; (P) 1.6501; (R1) 1.6546; More…

Range trading continues in EUR/AUD and intraday bias remains neutral for the moment. On the upside, decisive break of 1.6671 will revive the case that whole correction from 1.7062 has completed with three waves down to 1.6127. Further rally should then be seen to 1.6844 resistance for confirmation. Nevertheless, below 1.6455 minor support will turn bias to the downside for 1.6348 and possibly below.

In the bigger picture, fall from 1.7062 medium term top is seen as a correction to the up trend from 1.4281 (2022 low). Break of 1.6844 resistance will argue that this up trend is ready to resume through 1.7062 high. In case of another fall, strong support should be seen around 1.5846 and 38.2% retracement of 1.4281 to 1.7062 at 1.6000 to bring rebound.

Daily Pivots: (S1) 1.4850; (P) 1.4950; (R1) 1.5007; More…

Intraday bias in EUR/AUD is mildly on the downside for the moment. Rebound from 1.4561 could have completed at 1.5327, ahead of 1.5354 support turned resistance. Deeper fall would be seen back to retest 1.4561 low. However, break of 1.5085 minor resistance will turn bias back to the upside for 1.5237, and possibly another take on 1.5354.

In the bigger picture, fall from 1.9799 is seen as a long term impulsive move. Next target is 61.8% projection of 1.9799 to 61.8% projection of 1.9799 to 1.5250 from 1.6434 at 1.3623, which is close to 1.3624 long term support (2017 low). Some support could be seen there to bring interim rebound. But overall, break of 1.5354 support turned resistance is needed to be the first sign of medium term bottoming. Otherwise, outlook will stay bearish in case of recovery.

EUR/AUD rose to as high as 1.6121 last week but failed to take out 1.6122 key resistance yet. With a temporary top in place, initial bias is turned neutral this week first. On the upside, decisive break of 1.6122 will confirm the bullish view that correction from 1.6765 has completed with three waves down to 1.5683. In this case, further rise should be seen back to retest 1.6765 high. On the downside, break of 1.5905 support will indicate rejection by 1.6122 and turn bias to the downside for 1.5806 support and below.

In the bigger picture, as long as 1.5346 support holds, outlook will still remain bullish. Up trend from 1.1602 (2012 low) is expected to resume sooner or later. Break of 1.6765 will target 61.8% retracement of 2.1127 (2008 high) to 1.1602 at 1.7488 next. However, firm break of 1.5346 key support will indicate trend reversal, with bearish divergence condition in weekly MACD, and turn outlook bearish.

In the longer term picture, the rise from 1.1602 long term bottom (2012 low) is still in progress for 61.8% retracement of 2.1127 to 1.1602 at 1.7488. Firm break there will pave the way to 100% projection of 1.1602 to 1.6587 from 1.3624 at 1.8069. This will remain the favored case as long as 1.5346 remains intact.

Daily Pivots: (S1) 1.6507; (P) 1.6545; (R1) 1.6595; More…

Intraday bias in EUR/AUD remains neutral first and more range trading could be seen. On the upside, sustained break of 1.6586 will will suggest that it’s at least in correction to the fall from 1.9799 to 1.6033. Further rise should then be seen to 38.2% retracement of 1.9799 to 1.6033 at 1.7472. However, rejection by 1.6586 will maintain near term bearishness for another fall through 1.6033 later.

In the bigger picture, whole up trend from 1.1602 (2012 low) might have completed at 1.9799. Deeper fall might be seen to 55 month EMA (now at 1.5823). Sustained break there will pave the way to 61.8% retracement of 1.1602 to 1.9799 at 1.4733. However, strong support from 55 week EMA (now at 1.6453) would neutralize the long term bearishness and argues that price actions from 1.9799 are developing into a sideway range pattern instead.

Daily Pivots: (S1) 1.5306; (P) 1.5382; (R1) 1.5448; More….

With 1.5454 minor resistance intact, intraday bias in EUR/AUD stays on the downside. Current fall from 1.6189 should target 1.5153 key support level next. On the upside, above 1.5454 minor resistance will turn intraday bias neutral and bring consolidation, before staging another decline.

In the bigger picture, rally from 1.3624 (2017 low) should have completed at 1.6189 already, ahead of 1.6587 key resistance (2015 high). 1.6189 is seen as a medium term top. Deeper fall would be seen to 38.2% retracement of 1.3624 to 1.6189 at 1.5209 first. Decisive break there will pave the way to 61.8% retracement at 1.4604. In that case, we’ll look for bottoming again below 1.4604. On the upside, firm break of 1.5773 support turned resistance is needed to indicate completion of the fall from 1.6189. Otherwise, further decline is expected in medium term, even in case of strong rebound.

EUR/AUD’s rise from 1.3624 accelerated to as high as 1.4909 last week. The strong break of 1.4721 resistance confirmed our view of trend reversal. That is the whole decline form 1.6587 has completed at 1.3624 after defending 1.3671 key support level. Further rally is now expected to next fibonacci level at 1.5455.

Initial bias in EUR/AUD remains on the upside this week. Current rally should now target next medium term fibonacci level at 1.5455. On the downside, touching 1.4649 minor support will turn bias neutral and bring consolidation. But retreat should be contained by 1.4442 support and bring rise resumption.

In the bigger picture, price actions from 1.6587 medium term top are viewed as a corrective pattern. Such correction should be completed after defending 1.3671 key support. Rise from 1.3642 is now expected to target 61.8% retracement of 1.6587 to 1.3624 at 1.5455 and above. In any case, outlook will now stay cautiously bullish as long as 1.4309 resistance turned support holds.

In the longer term picture, the rise from 1.1602 long term bottom isn’t over yet. We’ll keep monitoring the development but there is prospect of extending the rise to 61.8% retracement of 2.1127 to 1.1602 at 1.7488 and above. However, sustained trading below 1.3671 should confirm trend reversal and target 1.1602 long term bottom again.