USDCAD Outlook

USD/CAD fall from 1.4247 resumed after initial recovery to 1.4127. While deeper decline cannot be ruled out, downside should be contained by 1.3965 cluster support (38.2% retracement of 1.3480 to 1.4247 at 1.3954 to bring rebound. Firm break of 1.4127 will bring stronger rally to retest 1.4247 high. However, sustained break of 1.3954/65 will bring deeper fall to 61.8% retracement at 1.3773, and argue that rebound from 1.3480 might have completed.

In the bigger picture, fall from 1.4791 medium term top has completed as a three wave correction to 1.3480. It's still early to judge if rise from there a corrective bounce, or resumption of the larger up trend from 1.2005 (2021 low). But in either case, sustained break of 61.8% retracement of 1.4791 to 1.3480 at 1.4290 will pave the way to retest 1.4791 high. However, rejection by 1.4290 will argue that fall from 1.4791 is going to extend with another leg through 1.3480 instead.

In the long term picture, rising 55 M EMA (now at 1.3631) remains intact. Thus, up trend from 0.9056 (2007 low) could still be in progress. However, considering bearish divergence condition M MACD, sustained trading below 55 M EMA will argue that the up trend has completed with five waves up to 1.4791, and turn medium term outlook bearish for correction to 38.2% retracement of 0.9056 to 1.4791 at 1.2600.

USD/CAD's corrective fall from 1.4247 extended lower and intraday bias stays mildly on the downside. Strong support should be seen from 1.3965 cluster support (38.2% retracement of 1.3480 to 1.4247 at 1.3954) to bring rebound. On the upside, break of 1.4127 will bring stronger rally back to retest 1.4247.

In the bigger picture, current development suggests that fall from 1.4791 has completed as a three wave correction to 1.3480. It's still early to judge if rise from there a corrective bounce, or resumption of the larger up trend from 1.2005 (2021 low). But in either case, retest of 1.4791 high should be seen next.

USD/CAD's break of 1.4005 minor support dampened the original bullish view, and suggests that recovery from 1.4002 has completed at 1.4127. Correction from 1.4247 is extending with another falling leg. But even so, downside should be contained by 1.3965 cluster support (38.2% retracement of 1.3480 to 1.4247 at 1.3954) to bring rebound. On the upside, break of 1.4127 will bring stronger rally back to retest 1.4247.

In the bigger picture, current development suggests that fall from 1.4791 has completed as a three wave correction to 1.3480. It's still early to judge if rise from there a corrective bounce, or resumption of the larger up trend from 1.2005 (2021 low). But in either case, retest of 1.4791 high should be seen next.