USDJPY Outlook

USD/JPY's rise from 155.01 extended higher last week and there is not sign of topping yet. Initial bias remains on the upside for 160.71. Strong resistance is still expected from there to limit upside. Break of 159.08 will turn bias back to the downside the extend the corrective pattern from 160.71 with the third leg. However, decisive break of 160.71 will confirm up trend resumption. That should push USD/JPY through 161.94 to 100% projection of 152.25 to 160.71 from 155.01 at 163.47 next.

In the bigger picture, for now, corrective pattern from 161.94 (2024 high) is still seen as completed at 139.87. Rise from there is seen as resuming the long term up trend. So, break of 161.94 is expected at a later stage to resume the long term up trend. However, sustained break of 55 W EMA (now at 154.75) will dampen this view and bring deeper fall back towards 139.87 to extend the pattern from 161.94.

In the long term picture, up trend from 75.56 (2011 low) is still in progress and might be ready to resume. Firm break of 161.94 will target 61.8% projection of 102.58 (2020 low) to 161.94 (2024 high) from 139.87 at 176.55 in the medium term. Long term outlook will stay bullish as long as 139.87 support holds, even in case of deep pullback.

USD/JPY's rally from 155.01 is still in progress and intraday bias stays on the upside. As this rise is viewed as the second leg of the corrective pattern from 160.71, strong resistance should emerge there to cap upside. Break of 159.08 minor support will turn bias back to the downside for 55 D EMA (now at 158.56) and below. However, decisive break of 160.71 will confirm up trend resumption. That should push USD/JPY through 161.94 to 100% projection of 152.25 to 160.71 from 155.01 at 163.47 next.

In the bigger picture, for now, corrective pattern from 161.94 (2024 high) is still seen as completed at 139.87. Rise from there is seen as resuming the long term up trend. So, break of 161.94 is expected at a later stage to resume the long term up trend. However, sustained break of 55 W EMA (now at 154.55) will dampen this view and bring deeper fall back towards 139.87 to extend the pattern from 161.94.

Intraday bias in USD/JPY is back on the upside with breach of 159.99. Further rise would be seen to retest 160.71. Strong resistance shold be seen there to limit upside. On the downside, break of 159.08 minor support will turn bias back to the downside for 55 D EMA (now at 158.56) and below.

In the bigger picture, for now, corrective pattern from 161.94 (2024 high) is still seen as completed at 139.87. Rise from there is seen as resuming the long term up trend. So, break of 161.94 is expected at a later stage to resume the long term up trend. However, sustained break of 55 W EMA (now at 154.55) will dampen this view and bring deeper fall back towards 139.87 to extend the pattern from 161.94.