Notes/Observations
- China economic data offered some positive surprises as Annual Q1 GDP pace, Mar Retail Sales and Industrial Production all beat expectations
- Situation on the Korean peninsula remained tense even though there was no activity at the nuclear test site over the weekend; North Korea said to have failed in a ballistic missile launch early on Sunday
- Softer US CPI and Retail Sales data has market participants rethink the probability of another Fed rate hike in June
Overnight:
Asia:
- China Q1 GDP YoY: 6.9% v 6.8%e (fastest growth since the third quarter of 2015)
- China Mar Industrial ProductionYoY: 7.6% v 6.3%e (highest since Dec 2014)
- China Mar Retail Sales YoY: 10.9% v 9.7%e (3-month high)
- (JP) Japan PM Abe: Need to pressure North Korea for a sincere dialogue; Working for China to play a larger role in North Korea
- US carrier USS Vinson to reach South Korea east coast on Apr 25th
- (JP) Japan to seeking to revive Trans-Pacific Partnership (TPP) without the US
Europe:
- Turkey passed its referendum on changing the constitution to replace its parliamentary system with the executive presidency with 51.5% v 48.7%; opposition to challenge result
- EU’s Piri: Will suspend EU accession talks with Turkey if referendum package not changed
- France presidential candidate Mélenchon (far left, communist) is rapidly rising in the polls
Americas:
- US Mar CPI (released Friday) saw its 1st MoM negative reading since Feb 2016 and by its largest amount since Jan 2010
- US Mar Advance Retail Sales (released Friday) registered its 2nd straight decline (M/M: -0.2% v -0.2%e
Energy:
- (US) Weekly Baker Hughes US Rig Count: 847 v 839 w/w (+1%)(13th straight weekly rise)
Economic Data
- (IN) India Mar Wholesale Prices (WPI) Y/Y: 5.7% v 6.0%e
- (TR) Turkey Jan Unemployment Rate: 13.0% v 13.0%e (highest level since Feb 2010)
- (TR) Turkey Mar Central Gov’t Budget Balance (TRY): -19.5B v -6.8B prior
**Fixed Income Issuance:
- None seen
SPEAKERS/FIXED INCOME/FX/COMMODITIES/ERRATUM
**Equities**
- European markets closed for Easter Monday holiday
Speakers
- Turkey Dep PM Simsek reiterated view that double digit inflation is unacceptable and that it will fall to single digits
- Various global leaders react to Turkey’s “Yes’ outcome for its Constitutional Referendum
- German Chancellor Merkel called for respectful dialogue with Turkey
- BOJ Gov Kuroda reiterated that ist needed to continue with its easy monetary policy because consumer prices were still distant from its 2 percent inflation target. Domestic economy had continued its moderate recovery trend; exports and production are recovering
- BOJ Dep Gov Nakaso: BOJ should explain exit strategy as they near 2% inflation target. Bank was naturally holding internal discussions on its exit strategy from monetary easing, including the methods and impact on the bank’s profitability.
- South Korea acting President Hwang stated that it had agreed with US to tighten global network of pressure on North Korea – comments alongside US VP Pence
- US VP Pence stated US was 100% commitment to South Korea and would meet any attack
- Saudi Oil Min Al-Falih noted that it aimed to double gas output by 2030 and planned to produce energy from nuclear sources
Currencies
- The USD was on soft footing after Friday’s release of Mar CPI and retail sales data underwhelmed and had participants rethink the probability of another Fed rate hike in June.
- EUR/USD was higher by 0.2% at 1.0630 area in quiet trading with European markets closed for Easter Monday holiday.
- USD/JPY was softer by 0.3% and hovered near 5-month lows. Geopolitical worries over the Korean Peninsula also contributed to a firmer yen on safe-haven flows.
Looking Ahead
- 07:00 (IN) India announces details of upcoming bond sale (held on Fridays)
- 07:00 (BR) Brazil Apr FGV Inflation IGP-10 M/M: -0.6%e v 0.1% prior
- 07:00 (BR) Brazil Central Bank (BCB) Apr COPOM Minutes
- 07:25 (BR) Brazil Central Bank Weekly Economists Survey
- 07:30 (BR) Brazil Feb Economic Activity Index (Monthly GDP) M/M: +0.5%e v -0.3% prior; Y/Y: -2.4%e v -0.8% prior
- 07:30 (TR) Turkey TCMB Turkey Survey of Expectations
- 08:30 (US) Apr Empire Manufacturing: 15.0e v 16.4 prior
- 10:00 (US) Apr NAHB Housing Market Index: 70e v 71 prior
- 11:30 (US) Treasury to sell 3-Month and 6-month Bills
- 15:00 (CO) Colombia Feb Industrial Production Y/Y: -1.3%e v -0.2% prior
- 15:00 (CO) Colombia Feb Retail Sales Y/Y: -1.6%e v -2.2% prior
- 16:00 (US) Feb Total Net TIC Flows: No est v $110.4B prior; Net Long-term TIC Flows: No est v $6.3B prior
- 16:00 (US) Weekly Crop Progress Report
