HomeContributorsFundamental AnalysisWeekly Focus: 2019 Starts off on the Wrong Foot

Weekly Focus: 2019 Starts off on the Wrong Foot

Jan 04 19, 15:22 GMT

Market movers ahead

Recession fears continue to loom in the US, and we expect that to weigh on business confidence indicators released next week.
The FOMC minutes and a number of speeches will attract a lot of attention next week, along with further developments in the ongoing government shutdown.
In the upcoming ECB minutes we will look in particular for discussion on the growth and inflation outlook – not least the comments on the strong wage growth numbers.
In the UK, the focus remains on Brexit as the debate ahead of the vote in the House of Commons begins next week – the vote is scheduled for the following week.
The main event of the week in Scandies is the Riksbank Minutes. The focus will be on clues as to how determined the Board is about the need for further hikes.

Weekly wrap-up

In the US market pricing is now pointing to cuts rather than hikes. We find the move overdone and with the strong US labour market and economy, we expect the Fed to continue on its hiking path.
We do not expect a recession in 2019 and hence expect investors to make a reality check at some point, which should lead to higher equity prices.
On a positive note, we have received promising indications on the US-China trade war, with a new round of talks kicking off next week.
Our new forecast for the Nordics, Nordic Outlook , 4 January, has been released. We expect a more pronounced slowdown in Sweden, but continued moderate growth in the rest of the region.

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