It continues to be an uneventful week for EUR/USD. The pair is unchanged on Wednesday, trading at 1.1353, up 0.02% on the day. On the release front, German PPI declined by 0.1%, shy of the estimate of 0.2%. This marked the second decline in three months. The Federal Reserve releases its monthly rate statement. On Thursday, the E.U. holds an economic summit. The U.S. will release the Philly Fed Manufacturing Index and unemployment claims.
The Federal Reserve is virtually certain to hold the benchmark rate at the Wednesday meeting, but traders should nonetheless treat the meeting as a market-mover. Policymakers have been sending out dovish messages, and if the Fed reaffirms that it will remain cautious and patient, the dollar could lose ground. The Fed’s balance sheet will also be under scrutiny, with the policymakers expected to announce when they will stop reducing the $4 billion balance sheet. The central bank has been reducing assets by $50 billion a month, but there has been criticism that this tightening is choking economic growth. The Fed will also publish its new dot plot, a quarterly release which is used to convey its interest rate outlook.
European leaders will meet in Brussels on Thursday, where Prime Minister May will request an extension for Brexit. The Europeans are exasperated by turmoil surrounding Brexit and the inability of the British government to pass the withdrawal agreement in parliament. Jean-Claude Juncker, the President of the European Commission, said on Wednesday that the E.U. would not provide May with an answer right away and would meet for consultations next week. The clock is ticking, with Britain scheduled to leave the E.U. on March 29.
