Market movers ahead

  • In the euro area, we are due to get the last inflation input before the ECB meeting in September, setting the scene for the monetary stimulus package. We expect August inflation to be unchanged from July inflation.
  • We do not expect to see any improvement in numbers out of Germany, as the Ifo index is set to decline further on the back of ongoing geopolitical uncertainty.
  • In the US, we are set to get preliminary capex orders for July, which will be interesting in light of the ongoing manufacturing slowdown and trade war uncertainty.
  • Focus remains on Brexit and whether the anti-hard Brexiteers can find a common way forward to block Prime Minister Boris Johnson delivering a no-deal Brexit.
  • Danish data next week should shed light on what has been driving the strong Q2 GDP reading. In contrast, we expect Swedish data to show weakness.

Weekly wrap-up

  • We have published an update on our outlook for the global economy (see Global Economic Update: Stuck in the mud but no hard landing yet , 22 August) . With no solution to the trade war in sight, we have downgraded our growth outlook.
  • The FOMC minutes from the July meeting revealed a very divided Fed on the topic of further easing, inflation expectations continue to slide and US PMI manufacturing moved below 50.
  • In the euro area, the economic backdrop remains gloomy and the ECB confirmed that it plans to unveil a stimulus package in September but did not give any clues on the exact design and magnitude of policy measures included.

Full report in PDF.

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