Market movers ahead
- How much has the weakening in manufacturing spread to the rest of the US economy? ISM non-manufacturing and Michigan consumer sentiment will provide data for October, which we believe is likely to be weaker than the September data.
- The European Commission publishes economic forecasts and we expect this to lead to focus on both Italy’s budget and the discussion about fiscal easing in the euro area.
- The Bank of England is probably moving closer to a rate cut and we could see an adjustment in its signalling at the upcoming monetary policy meeting.
- Chinese trade data are likely to show weak exports but not as weak as at the beginning of the year, while trade talks provide some optimism.
- We hope minutes from the October meeting of the Swedish Riksbank will shed some light on the bank’s surprising decision to call for a single rate hike in December, followed by unchanged rates for several years.
Weekly wrap-up
- The Fed delivered a rate cut as expected but also pushed the pause button.
- The Brexit deadline was extended and, in our view, the new election set to take place on 12 December is a referendum in disguise, with the result unpredictable.
- Euro area core inflation beat expectations and new ECB President Christine Lagarde came with a strong call for fiscal easing in Germany and other countries.
- Manufacturing in Norway looks strong compared with that in the rest of the world.
